GBP/JPY stayed in range of 210.43/214.21 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Below 210.43 will extend the fall from 216.58 to 209.58 support first. However, firm break of 214.21 will argue that the pullback from 216.58 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.46) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.
