Image of CEO Elon Musk by Frederic Legrand – COMEO via Shutterstock
Tesla (TSLA) short sellers haven’t exactly been obliterated. Two years after Elon Musk warned that anyone betting against Tesla would eventually get crushed, the stock’s decline has left short sellers sitting on roughly $9 billion in paper gains this year.
“Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates,” Musk wrote on July 2, 2024, on X (formerly Twitter).
The prediction was aimed in part at Bill Gates, who had confirmed to Musk that he had shorted Tesla, according to Walter Isaacson’s 2023 biography of the Tesla CEO.
Tesla Shorts Are Sitting on $9 Billion
Tesla short sellers had accumulated roughly $9.08 billion in unrealized gains in 2026 as of late July, according to S3 Partners data cited in market coverage. TSLA stock was down nearly 30% at the time, giving investors betting against the stock a sizable mark-to-market gain.
Those aren’t necessarily realized profits. A mark-to-market gain can disappear if Tesla shares rebound, and short sellers also face stock-borrowing costs.
Still, the numbers show why Musk’s 2024 prediction hasn’t played out—at least not yet.
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Tesla’s bearish positioning had also grown substantially heading into the company’s second-quarter earnings report. S3 Partners said short interest had climbed to nearly 80 million shares from about 60 million in March, a roughly 33% increase.
The earnings reaction gave the bears another boost. Tesla shares plunged sharply after the results, producing more than $4 billion in mark-to-market gains for short sellers in a single session, according to S3 Partners data reported by Bloomberg and others.
Gates Really Did Short TSLA Stock
The Gates connection isn’t simply a claim Musk made on social media.
According to Isaacson’s account, Gates had shorted TSLA stock and told the biographer that Musk became “super mean” after learning about the trade. Gates also acknowledged the short in the account of his interactions with Musk.
Musk later publicly put the size of Gates’ short at about $500 million. By 2022, Musk said the position had produced a loss of roughly $1.5 billion as Tesla shares climbed.
The precise date Gates established the short isn’t publicly documented. Reports have generally described it as a trade made several years before the 2022 confrontation, rather than identifying a specific day or transaction.
There also isn’t a public confirmation that Gates still holds the position today. Musk has continued to discuss it as though it could remain open, but Gates’ current holdings aren’t publicly known.
Musk’s Bet Depends on Autonomy and Optimus
There’s an important caveat to Musk’s prediction.
He didn’t say TSLA shorts would be obliterated immediately. He tied that outcome to two future milestones: Tesla fully solving autonomy and Optimus reaching volume production.
Tesla has made progress on autonomous driving, robotaxis, and Optimus, but it hasn’t yet reached the full autonomy and Optimus volume production milestones Musk described.
That leaves investors with two very different ways to view Tesla.
Bears can point to the stock’s recent decline, rising short interest, and billions of dollars in paper gains. Bulls can argue that the current stock price doesn’t capture the potential value of autonomy, robotics, and other businesses Musk believes can eventually transform Tesla.
For now, neither side has a final verdict.
Short sellers have a substantial paper win in 2026, but that doesn’t mean the trade is over. A major TSLA rally could erase those gains quickly.
And Musk’s prediction has a clear condition attached to it.
Until Tesla fully delivers the autonomy and Optimus milestones he cited, the “obliterated” call remains a bet on what the company could become—not a description of what has happened so far.
On the date of publication, Caleb Naysmith did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
