Mainland Chinese investors have slowed their purchases of Hong Kong-listed shares this year after last year’s record inflows, as more artificial intelligence investment opportunities have emerged in mainland markets, according to BNP Paribas.
Southbound inflows via the Stock Connect cross-border system have reached about US$30 billion so far this year, a slower pace than 2025, when they hit US$180 billion for the full year, according to the French bank. The deceleration reflected changing market dynamics rather than a retreat from Chinese assets, BNP Paribas strategists said at a media briefing on Tuesday.
“Investors are still positive on China’s AI story,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivative strategy, adding that the difference this year was that they had “more options to express those views”.
Last year’s rally was driven by the sudden emergence of AI start-up DeepSeek, which caught markets by surprise and led to concentrated buying of Hong Kong-listed technology giants, he said. This year had no event of similar magnitude, while a wave of new listings over the past six to nine months had provided more pure-play AI investment options across both mainland and Hong Kong markets.
As a result, investors were increasingly shifting from broad index exposure to more selective bets on individual companies, reducing the need to rely on Hong Kong-listed internet stocks as proxies for the AI theme, according to the bank.
The slowdown in southbound inflows also reflected a higher base after last year’s surge, said Kenny Tang Sing-hing, chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators.
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