Key Points
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) initially unveiled its Cybercab concept in 2024. The design was simple: no steering wheel, no pedal, and limited features. The goal was to manufacture a simple, streamlined vehicle that can drive completely autonomously, operating as part of a larger robotaxi fleet.
Many analysts were quick to project rapid growth.
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Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, for example, believed the Cybercab would unleash “a new chapter of growth around autonomous, FSD, and AI future at Tesla.” Ives touted that Tesla’s then non-existent robotaxi service would create “$1 trillion of value alone for Tesla over the coming years,” adding that the service could soon add “$10 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue” for the company.
Nearly two years later, Tesla’s robotaxi service is likely generating an immaterial amount of revenue for the EV maker, though the exact revenue breakdown has yet to be provided. Tesla has had issues scaling its robotaxi service as quickly as it would have liked, repeatedly running into both regulatory challenges and technical disruptions. The service, meanwhile, relied on Tesla’s Model Y, with Cybercabs nowhere in sight.
On Sept. 3, however, Tesla’s Cybercab model officially hit the streets. Around 45 company-owned Cybercabs were added to Tesla’s Austin robotaxi service, though the company will likely look to outside partners to scale Cybercab deployments to other cities and states.
Has Tesla’s robotaxi division finally reached a growth inflection point? There are two things investors must keep in mind.
1. Robotaxis are critical to Tesla’s valuation
It is hard to fathom Tesla’s valuation when viewing the company strictly as an automaker. Shares trade at 13 times sales and 354 times earnings. Ford (NYSE:F), for comparison, trades at just 0.3 times sales and 11 times earnings. Even Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) — another EV stock with exposure to the robotaxi market — trades well below 4 times sales.
Clearly, Tesla investors are pricing in more than just vehicle sales. That’s especially true given the company faced negative vehicles sales growth in both 2024 and 2025.
How much of Tesla’s current valuation relies on the success of its robotaxi service is debatable. But there’s no doubt that scaling and monetizing robotaxis is a “must” for Tesla’s $1.2 trillion valuation to be justified long term.
Image source: Tesla
2. We still know very little about how Cybercabs will scale
Despite how important robotaxis are to Tesla’s valuation, we still know very little about how the company will price or scale its new Cybercab model.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has teased a starting price of around $30,000. But even after the major Cybercab event held on Sept. 3, exact pricing details have yet to be confirmed. Musk also failed to give any concrete details on Cybercab production volumes. Even worse, Tesla recently dropped the Cybercab from models the company expects to reach mass volumes this year.
To be clear, Tesla remains a strong robotaxi competitor. The company’s vertical integration and cost base will likely allow it to scale more aggressively than the competition. But as with most of Tesla’s growth initiatives, the timelines involved will likely be longer than investors (or even Musk himself) would like to believe. Tesla’s Cybercab launch in Tesla is exciting. But meaningful robotaxi revenue is not yet around the corner.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
