Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading around $1.552, with support at $1.548 and potential resistance at $1.576.
- Recent positive developments include the launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs and improvements to the XRP Ledger, attracting institutional clients.
- Retail activity remains weak, with a year-over-year decrease in daily active accounts, highlighting a shift towards institutional investment.
- The upcoming Batch V1.1 upgrade is expected to enhance institutional settlement capabilities on the XRP Ledger.
This week XRP has been hovering around $1.552. While price is still touching the rising trendline and supporting at $1.548, I expect further upside potential. The recent developments for XRP have been extremely positive, especially the announcements of multiple U.S. spot XRP ETFs. In addition, the ongoing development of the XRP Ledger is attracting new institutional clients. Improvements to the XRP Ledger through the Batch Updates (V1.1) will further facilitate institutional clientele. Moving higher, I expect resistance at $1.576, with higher potential at $1.597 and $1.625. Given the current outlook, I am bullish on XRP, but will be mindful of contagion risk on the remaining cryptomarkets.
ETF Access Keeps Expanding
Direct institutional investment in XRP has improved with the launch of the first regulated XRP spot ETF in the U.S. The Bitwise ETF has ~$613.8 million in assets, with ~401 million XRP held in trust, as of September 23, 2022. The ETF is listed on NYSE Arca, and because of the nature of the ETF, it provides regulated exposure to XRP. The ETF provides asset managers the opportunity to gain exposure to XRP without having to custody the digital asset. Increased interest in U.S. spot XRP ETFs has also demonstrated that institutions are comfortable with the level of risk the ETFs expose them to, and remain interested in gaining exposure to XRP.
XRPL Activity Is Becoming More Institutional
A gap has emerged between user numbers and transaction quality on the XRP Ledger. As reported by a market maker in the second quarter of 2026, order book trading volume has increased by 79% compared to the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, the number of accounts connected to order book trading has decreased by 41%. As such, larger trades have replaced a greater volume of smaller trades.
s reported by the XRP Ledger Foundation, the average quarterly balance of tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger increased by 42% to $3.72 billion. The average quarterly balance of the Stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) increased by 317% to $2.27 billion. Between the third and fourth quarters of 2026, the average quarterly balance of the XRP Ledger increased by 50% to $99 million.
As such, the average quarterly balance of the XRP Ledger increased by 4,141% to $4.26 billion. The XRP Ledger is increasingly used for institutional transactions.
Retail Activity Is Still a Weak Spot
The trend has been unfavorable for XRP. Daily active accounts average around 16,600 according to the latest quarterly report, with a year over year decrease of approximately 24%. Retail expansion is broad-based when an asset sees increased adoption by the general public, and for XRP, this is not the case. XRP’s recent increase in value and volume is due to institutional investors. Transaction activity is not indicative of the overall health of a cryptocurrency, and a good ecosystem has retail and institutional investors. There are more institutions investing XRP than retail, but this is skewed toward institutional investments. This is something the XRP community needs to pay attention to.
Batch V1.1 Could Strengthen Institutional Settlement
New changes are coming to the XRP Ledger. Batch V1.1 is expected to launch on October 2nd, and will allow up to 8 transactions to be linked together. If any of the transactions in the batch fail to be verified, then the entire batch is rolled back. This upgrade is primarily beneficial to financial institutions. Transactions can be bundled together, such as payment and delivery transactions.
Currently, Ripple states that asset managers are positioning to use the upgrade and several groups are exploring the possible uses for the new feature. Ripple states that if adoption continues to grow, batch transactions can assist with settlement and payment of securities.
RLUSD Growth Is Positive, but Not Automatically Bullish for XRP
A quick fact is how quickly RLUSD has been growing. Average RLUSD balances on the XRP Ledger reached $539 million in Q2. The total amount of stablecoins issued on the XRP Ledger reached $4.26 billion in Q2. Obviously, this is good for the ecosystem. Not all stablecoin activity on a blockchain requires the use of the native cryptocurrency of the blockchain. Some investors have been under the impression that XRPL growth and the growth of the XRP ecosystem are the same and same things. This isn’t always the case. The best case scenario for XRP is to have both increasing demand and increasing activity for XRP and the XRP ecosystem.
Broader Crypto Conditions Remain the Main Risk
In our opinion, the company and network fundamentals for XRP have improved, but the price has not reflected this. If the broader crypto market remains risk averse, the same will probably be true for XRP, even with the improvements in XRP ETFs and XRP Ledger (XRPL) services and infrastructure. Next week’s price action will mostly depend on the broader crypto market. Improvements in risk appetite should also be bullish for XRP.
XRP Technical Analysis: $1.576 Is the First Recovery Test
On the 30 minute chart, XRP is currently at about $1.552. I see that price is currently trading above the $1.548 support area and the rising trendline. The longer term moving average is also in this area. Because of this, I consider this an important level of support. The first area of resistance is at $1.576. If we saw a break above $1.576, then $1.597 and $1.625 would be the next targets.
The $1.548 level would provide support again and below that, support would be provided by the $1.521 and $1.500 levels. The RSI is at about 44, suggesting neutral momentum. The RSI at 44 suggests that the 50 neutral level may attract buyers, but it may also attract sellers.
Resistance would be from the $1.576, $1.597, and $1.625 levels. Support would be from the $1.548, $1.521, and $1.500 levels. I think the 50 cent average is a good level and a good support, and I think a break above $1.576 may target $1.625. A break below $1.548 may lead to a move to $1.40.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is supporting XRP fundamentals?
The most bullish factors are expected spot ETFs, institutionals on XRPL, tokenization, the RLUSD, and the Batch V1.1 upgrade.
When could Batch V1.1 activate?
The upgrade is expected to happen about a week after September 29, if the support of validators remains at 80% or higher.
What is the key XRP breakout level?
Immediate resistance is expected at the $1.576 level. Above that, we can expect resistance at $1.597 and $1.625.
Arslan Ali Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
