The league champions kept 19 clean sheets last term, the most in the division. Yet, injuries to key personnel could derail their title defence.
| Outright Premier League winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | +150 |
| Manchester City | +275 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Arsenal’s defensive stability faces an early test
Any argument for backing City starts with a simple caveat – they only become the smarter outright option if Arsenal remain at a shorter price. The Gunners’ appeal is obvious enough after a 2025/26 league campaign built on defensive control. Mikel Arteta’s men shipped just 27 goals, while keeping 19 clean sheets and winning 17 matches to nil (45%) last season.
That makes any early problems in defence more significant for Arsenal than for most of their title challengers. William Saliba made 31 Premier League appearances and 30 starts last season, registering clean sheets in 52% of those matches. There’s a realistic chance his back issue could keep him out for a significant spell at the start of the campaign.
The full extent of the injury and the expected recovery timeline remain uncertain. Therefore, this should not yet be framed as a confirmed long-term crisis. Yet, the champions will start their defence without the man who has been central to their defensive strength. With Saliba, Arsenal won 68.7% of their league matches since his 2022/23 debut campaign compared to 47.6% during his absence.
Arsenal’s price should be treated with caution, even if they still prove to be the best team in the division. Their title charge depends heavily on defensive continuity, and any immediate disruption would make an early lead from Manchester City harder to justify. Ben White and Jurrien Timber are also doubtful to start the new campaign, as both suffered injuries towards the end of last term.
Tricky fixtures to navigate
Arsenal don’t have much room for a slow start. Their Community Shield clash with City is on 16 August. They can test themselves against a side likely to challenge them for the league title. Losing at the Principality Stadium won’t cost the Gunners much, but it could point to potential vulnerabilities.
The champions open their league season at home to newly-promoted Coventry City before facing Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Sunderland. It’s a difficult set of fixtures already, it’s even trickier if Arsenal are still searching for defensive cohesion.
City’s opening sequence looks slightly kinder from an outright perspective. They start with Bournemouth at home, followed by trips to Crystal Palace and Manchester United and a home fixture against Coventry in between.
A stern test is waiting at Old Trafford, but there’s also a chance for Enzo Maresca’s side to build early momentum before that. Recent meetings matter because they show this is not a one-way rivalry. The Cityzens beat the Gunners 2-1 in their April league meeting after already securing a 2-0 win in the EFL Cup final in March.
City found a foothold in this rivalry in the first half of 2026 after a couple of years of Arsenal on top. Both sides will likely compete for the title again. The early fixtures could have an impact on the market, particularly if Arsenal’s unresolved defensive issues affect their rhythm from the start.
City offer a valuable alternative
The case for City winning the league is strong enough on its own. Maresca takes over with the natural risks that come with a managerial transition. However, he is not starting from zero. The Italian previously worked as Pep Guardiola’s assistant during City’s treble-winning season, so there is at least some continuity behind the managerial change.
Maresca takes charge of a squad filled with attacking gems. City scored 77 league goals last season with an xG of 70.96. Even with the Guardiola era over, those numbers represent a side capable of challenging for the title.
Erling Haaland is the fuel behind City’s title challenge. He delivered 27 goals and eight assists in 35 Premier League appearances last term. With those numbers in mind, City don’t require perfection elsewhere. As long as he can deliver that level of output, they’ll be in the title race.
Rodri’s availability would also further strengthen City’s midfield after a reduced league workload last season. The Spanish midfielder got back to his best form at the World Cup, ultimately winning the Golden Ball as well as lifting the trophy with Spain. Maresca can also count on newly-signed Elliott Anderson, who should help shore up City’s midfield.
This makes City an intriguing prospect at the current odds. Arsenal must address those defensive injuries if they’re to build on last season. Failure to bolster their squad could leave them short, allowing City to benefit. If Rodri and Erling Haaland are back at their best, it will be hard to stop them.
