USD/CAD
The US dollar has fallen during the bulk of the week against the Canadian dollar as we are now entering the so-called golden zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The market now finds itself at a bit of a crossroads, but it certainly looks like the US dollars on its back foot as recent economic numbers coming out of America have been weaker than expected.
That doesn’t mean that the world has changed, nor does it mean that there’s some type of trend change coming longer term, but it certainly looks like the Canadian dollar is creeping higher.
EUR/USD
The euro initially fell during the week but then turned around to show signs of life as it looks like it is trying to break above the 1.16 level.
Breaking above the 1.16 level would be a bullish sign, possibly opening up a move toward the 1.1850 level, which is an area that is a significant resistance barrier.
If we do rally from here, then it’s just simply a continuation of the consolidation we’ve been in for 18 months.
GBP/USD
The British pound looks as if it is trying to break out to the upside, with the 1.36 level offering a bit of resistance. There is almost like a zone of resistance extending to the 1.37 level.
With that being the case, we are approaching the top of the range. Whether or not we can break out remains to be seen. The British pound is one of the better performers against the US dollar in general, so I’m watching this one closely.
Gold
The gold market tried to rally for the week. It did keep some of the gains, but gave back quite a bit. Ultimately, this is a market that looks like it might be a little bit exhausted after the shot higher during the previous week, so I am watching this closely.
Could be a bit of a buy-on-the-pullback type scenario, though. We’ll just have to keep our eyes open. I have particular interest in the $4200 level if it does in fact get tested, as it was a major resistance level previously. There could be a bit of market memory found in that area.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has dropped against the Mexican peso as the market is now threatening to break down below the crucial 17 pesos level. If it does, this opens up a move down to 16.5 pesos, which could really get things moving.
Ultimately, this is a market that has been sideways for a while, but I also recognize that the market is likely to see a lot of noise between here and 16.5, so this is more or less a carry trade position.
Silver
Silver rallied during the week, gave back some of the gains, but it is hovering around the 50-week EMA in a rather choppy manner in general, but I do think silver has quite a bit of buying pressure underneath it.
There is most certainly a lack of supply when it comes to the market, and this, of course, will eventually influence things and probably keep silver somewhat bid. The question at this point is going to be whether or not that’s now, or do we have to pull back in order to find enough support to get buyers interested?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has fallen during the week as it continues to consolidate in general. All things being equal, this is a market that has been consolidating between 68,000 and 60,000.
Right now, it looks like we just don’t have anywhere to be. Volume is somewhat anemic, but at the end of the day, this is a market that’s just trying to find some type of catalyst to get going. It’s very neutral, but if you’re a short-term trader, this might be a nice range-bound market to be involved in.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 has broken above the 30,000 level. This opens up the possibility of a move towards 30,800, which was a swing high. If we can break above there, then the uptrend will continue.
This has been the second positive week in a row that kicked off actually on a slightly negative hammer from 3 weeks ago, so this is just more momentum entering the market as we are in an earnings season that has been reasonably decent. I remain bullish.
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