USD/CHF rebounded to 0.7906 last week but failed to break through 0.7923 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.7837 will suggest that the rebound has completed, and bring deeper fall back to 0.7760. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.7923 will argue that that correction from 0.8741 has completed and bring stronger rally back to this resistance.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8035) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
