Key Points
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Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2026, triggering the need to refund approximately $166 billion to American businesses.
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Several of America’s best-known companies have received or expect to collect between $500 million and $2.4 billion in International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff refunds.
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However, newly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration may worsen inflationary concerns.
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Although outsize returns in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have been the norm under President Donald Trump, bouts of extreme volatility have been as well.
In early April 2025, the president unveiled his long-touted “Liberation Day” tariff and trade policy, featuring sweeping global tariffs and higher reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with America. These tariffs were designed to protect American manufacturing jobs and make U.S. goods more price-competitive with those imported from overseas markets.
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The Trump administration is issuing up to $166 billion in tariff refunds. Image source: Official White House Photo by Patrick B. Ruddy.
But in the days following this announcement, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite endured what’s now known as the “tariff tantrum.” Equities plunged amid historic uncertainty.
By February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court had invalidated the tariffs that Donald Trump had imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This left the Trump administration on the hook to refund approximately $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs it had collected. On Aug. 4, total refunds issued surpassed $100 billion.
Some of the best-known, consumer-facing companies are already receiving the largest refund checks — but this doesn’t mean tariffs are now yesterday’s news.
Massive Trump tariff refunds are being issued
The biggest IEEPA refund that’s already in hand went to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The iPhone maker received $2.19 billion (over 2% of total refunds thus far) in its fiscal third quarter, which lifted its quarterly earnings per share by $0.11. Outgoing CEO Tim Cook has pledged to reinvest this refund into innovation and domestic manufacturing.
Companies expecting tariff refunds:
• Amazon: $600 million
• Apple: $2.2 billion
• Ford: $1.3 billion
• General Motors: $500 million
• UPS: $500 million
• Walmart: $2.4 billionhttps://t.co/A0RQBr812d— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 3, 2026
Dual-industry leader Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) also received $600 million in IEEPA refunds during the second quarter. Unlike most companies receiving a refund, Amazon has stated that it plans to return some of this cash to its customers.
In terms of expectations, Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) could receive the fattest tariff refund of them all at $2.4 billion. Other sizable refund expectations include automakers Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), which anticipate refunds of $1.3 billion and $500 million, respectively, and wholesale club Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), which could receive around $2 billion. Costco has pledged to return this cash to its members if/when the government reimburses it.
Image source: Getty Images.
New tariffs mean new problems
While these IEEPA refunds are providing one-time bottom-line boosts for some of America’s consumer-facing powerhouses, the tariff story is far from over.
Last month, Trump and his administration used Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new sweeping global tariffs on more than 80 countries, ranging from 10% to 12.5%. Though the courts will ultimately determine the legality and staying power of these tariffs, their impact on consumer prices will be noticeable in economic data.
Across the 10 responses included from this month’s ISM survey of service-industry purchasing managers (the people who buy things on behalf of businesses), the dominant theme is rising costs, driven by fuel and energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related demand.
No respondent reports… pic.twitter.com/ICCGnIF0Nj
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 3, 2026
For the past year, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell and current Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have noted that Trump’s tariffs are lifting prices in the goods sector. Adding duties atop unfinished imported goods (e.g., steel) can increase U.S. production costs, which are then passed on to consumers.
Just because IEEPA tariff refunds are progressing, it doesn’t mean tariffs are yesterday’s news. If anything, we’re likely to see the inflationary effects of tariffs ramp back up in the coming quarters, which is potentially worrisome news for a historically expensive stock market.
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Sean Williams has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
