This is what the News Catalyst Fade looks like when economic news drives price against the trend, so we can open a position WITH the trend.
Today, let’s take a closer look.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on WTI, Brent Crude Oil, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, NZDUSD, and GBPNZD.
Without going into details of all the personalities, the incoming UK prime minister named his new Chancellor of the Exchequer, or finance minister, and the markets reacted positively.
This drove GBP higher, along with the idea that the BoE may raise interest rates in November.
Also, the weaker USD has made competing currencies more attractive.
Again, we see that this news has driven price action against the trend in some GBP pairs, with the trend in others, and to resistance in others.
We also see that the stochastic oscillator is overbought in every case.
The pair that interests us the most is GBP/NZD as the news drove price action against the trend.
So, why is NZD so strong?
The RBNZ sees inflation fears and projects 2 rate rises this year, and better Chinese trade has helped NZD.
The question is, which conditions are stronger when you have 2 strong currencies?
On the 4-hour chart, we see an incredible run of NZD strength for 9 days now, with room to move below.
The stochastic oscillator is overbought here.
If we go down to lower time frames, we see consolidation which may become a double top, so we may want to see price action break the neckline, support, or, if not, trade the range.
We are also looking at GBP/AUD with price action at resistance.
If we look at the daily chart, we see the same resistance from April, but we need to see some confirmation of a break above or a reversal.
On lower time frames, we are not seeing that reversal, but this could change soon.
On GBPCAD, we see a similar situation but with lower highs.
We have to go back to the monthly chart to see the same highs from 10 years ago, so be careful here.
Price action on WTI and Brent Crude is still elevated based on increased aggression in Iran and the lack of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
We have a great opportunity to go short here, but we must see peace in the Middle East.
The November midterms are coming up in the US, and the price of gasoline is affecting voters, so we may magically see some diplomatic efforts to calm down.
Watch the news.
