The 2026–27 Premier League campaign is underway, and it started much in the same way last season ended—with Arsenal cruising to victory.
The Gunners kicked off their title defense with a thumping 3–0 victory over the recently-promoted Coventry City. Even without new signing Bruno Guimarães available, Mikel Arteta’s men reminded the league why they have the English crown on their heads.
Last season’s runners-up Manchester City responded with a last-gasp comeback victory over Bournemouth, kickstarting the Enzo Maresca era with three points. Xabi Alonso was another new boss that claimed victory in his debut, leading Chelsea to a 3–2 win over Fulham.
Elsewhere, Manchester United were stunned by Hull City, as were Tottenham Hotspur by Brentford. Both losers failed to get on the scoresheet and conceded a combined five goals. Liverpool, meanwhile, needed a 99th-minute penalty to salvage a point against Newcastle United.
There’s nothing like jumping to conclusions based off just one match, especially when it comes to what the final Premier League table could look like come May. Here’s where the Opta supercomputer believes each team will finish following the first weekend of action.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Title Race
|
Predicted Position |
Club |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
3 |
74.80 |
45.18% |
|
2. |
Manchester City |
3 |
68.44 |
22.05% |
|
3. |
Liverpool |
1 |
61.42 |
8.18% |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
3 |
58.48 |
5.38% |
|
5. |
Man Utd |
0 |
55.34 |
3.30% |
|
6. |
Brighton |
3 |
55.21 |
3.00% |
Unsurprisingly, Opta backs Arsenal to win the 2026–27 Premier League title. The Gunners are given a staggering 45.18% chance of going back-to-back for the first time in 92 years, recording around 75 points—10 less than they tallied last season—along the way.
The supercomputer once again believes City are doomed to settle for second best. The Cityzens are projected to finish six points behind Arsenal. Maresca’s side can at least take comfort in being the only other team to snag double-digit title chances at 22.05%.
Liverpool are next up, predicted to finish third in Andoni Iraola’s debut campaign at Anfield. The Reds have just a 8.18% chance of dethroning Arsenal, a percentage that could perhaps increase if they secure a blockbuster winger before the summer transfer deadline.
The top three remain as Opta predicted before the season kicked off, but Chelsea are a new challenger in fourth place. The Blues climbed up the supercomputer’s rankings after their season opener, though they still have just a tiny 5.38% chance of lifting their first Premier League title since 2016–17.
The only other two teams given higher than a 2% chance of topping the league are Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion. The Red Devils, who were previously predicted to come fourth by Opta, dropped down to fifth following their shock defeat to Hull. The Seagulls, meanwhile, are now projected to finish nearly level with United on 55 points following their demolition of Aston Villa.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Race
|
Predicted Position |
Club |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
3 |
74.80 |
84.87% |
|
2. |
Manchester City |
3 |
68.44 |
66.07% |
|
3. |
Liverpool |
1 |
61.42 |
41.68% |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
3 |
58.48 |
31.71% |
|
5. |
Man Utd |
0 |
55.34 |
22.99% |
|
6. |
Brighton |
3 |
55.21 |
22.53% |
|
7. |
Newcastle |
1 |
52.98 |
17.29% |
|
8. |
Aston Villa |
0 |
52.98 |
16.17% |
|
9. |
Brentford |
3 |
52.75 |
16.35% |
|
10. |
Everton |
3 |
51.99 |
14.76% |
There’s great belief the top five teams in the final Premier League table will qualify for the 2027–28 Champions League following strong recent performances in UEFA competitions, much like the last two seasons. Opta has five of the league’s ‘Big Six’ taking those spots.
Liverpool will breathe a sigh of relief with their 41.68% odds of qualification after they only just squeaked into Europe’s premier club competition on the final day of last season. Chelsea will also be thrilled with a 31.71% chance of a Champions League return since they failed to qualify for any European competition at all in 2026–27.
United are in a worse position, on the cusp of dropping down to sixth with Brighton so close behind. The good news for both clubs is there is a long, long way to go before the race for the top five truly heats up.
Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brentford all hover around a 16% chance of playing Champions League soccer next season. It’s a fall from grace for Aston Villa in particular, who finished fourth last season and won the Europa League. But the losses of Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans, Ezri Konsa and potentially Ollie Watkins are—so far—proving hard to overcome.
Rounding out Opta’s top 10 are Everton. The Toffees, who defeated Crystal Palace in their season opener, have not finished in the top half of the table since 2020–21 and will no doubt take 14.76% odds of potentially qualifying for the Champions League. It’s more likely, though, that they will have to settle for the Europa League or the Conference League.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Relegation Battle
|
Predicted Position |
Club |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14. |
Crystal Palace |
0 |
45.81 |
23.83% |
|
15. |
Ipswich Town |
3 |
45.44 |
25.54% |
|
16. |
Nottingham Forest |
0 |
44.44 |
28.41% |
|
17. |
Coventry City |
0 |
44.25 |
29.41% |
|
18. |
Hull City |
3 |
44.10 |
29.55% |
|
19. |
Fulham |
0 |
43.37 |
31.26% |
|
20. |
Sunderland |
0 |
43.02 |
32.52% |
Toward the end of last season, the relegation battle was nearly as exciting—perhaps more—than the title race. Tottenham Hotspur managed to keep their place in the top-flight by two points, and Opta have them avoiding another near-disaster by finishing 12th.
The supercomputer is more concerned about Crystal Palace following the departure of Olivier Glasner, as well as newly-promoted Ipswich Town. Both teams, though, are projected to finish the season with around 45 points, enough to stave off relegation.
Glasner’s new side Nottingham Forest are not far behind with a projected 44-point finish, keeping their chances of demotion at 28.41%. The new boss will hope to steer the Tricky Trees higher than their predicted 16th place, where they ended last season.
Coventry and Hull coming in at 17th and 18th respectively is not overly surprising considering they are new additions to the league. Except the Tigers’ having a higher chance of dropping down feels rather cruel, considering they defeated Manchester United in their opening fixture.
Below the two clubs are Fulham. Opta is clearly not backing Álvaro Arbeloa’s reign at Craven Cottage despite his side’s valiant defeat to Chelsea on Monday. The Cottagers are projected to finish 19th and are given a 31.26% chance of playing in the Championship next season.
Fulham are only predicted to tally around 43 points, as are Sunderland. The Black Cats, who secured an impressive seventh-place finish last season, are now slated to come in last place following a 2–1 defeat to Ipswich Town. Ironically, the two bottom teams are set to clash next weekend, and the winner could see themselves quickly removed from the supercomputer’s drop zone.
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