Key Points
Rivian Automotive‘s (NASDAQ: RIVN) market cap currently hovers around $21 billion. Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the biggest EV stock on the planet, has a market cap of nearly $1.2 trillion. If Rivian could attain Tesla’s valuation, there would be more than 5,000% in potential upside.
Of course, Rivian won’t close that valuation gap overnight. After all, it took Tesla more than a decade to reach a market cap of $1 trillion. But there are two growth catalysts forming right now that strongly suggest Rivian could eventually become the next Tesla.
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1. AI will change transportation forever
For decades, automotive stocks have been valued based on sales growth and profitability. The goal was to increase sales and profits, hoping the market will reward those efforts. There’s a bit of disconnect occurring now, however, and Tesla’s stock price is the perfect example of that disconnect. For nearly three straight years, Tesla’s auto sales have declined. And yet the company’s market cap is near all-time highs, with a sky-high valuation when it comes to metrics like its price-to-sales ratio.
Why does Tesla’s stock price continue to rise despite falling auto sales? There are many reasons. CEO Elon Musk always seems capable of getting investors to focus on future potential rather than current struggles. But he’s right about one thing: Trailing auto sales won’t be indicative of whether an auto company will succeed long term. That’s because there’s another technology even more important to invest in right now rather than attempt to shore up volumes. That technology, of course, is artificial intelligence.
Put simply, AI is accelerating self-driving technology faster than ever before. AI was the missing link, it seems, in taking in a massive amount of real-time data and processing that data into actionable insights.
Tesla’s massive investments in AI arguably make it the leading automaker globally when it comes to the ability to reach full autonomy. And if full autonomy is reached, demand for Tesla’s vehicles will likely skyrocket. The company’s robotaxi efforts, meanwhile, would see a similar sizable spike in success. AI and autonomy, therefore, are more important long term than trailing auto sales.
Rivian can’t invest as heavily as Tesla, but it’s clearly following the company’s footsteps when it comes to ramping AI and autonomy investments. Rivian’s first AI Day in December impressed analysts. Investment into AI and autonomy will be so high, in fact, that management recently shelved its 2027 profitability targets.
AI will change the auto business forever. And both Tesla and Rivian appear to be investing accordingly.
Image source: Rivian.
2. Here’s how Rivian can replicate Tesla’s growth playbook
If successful, Tesla can take the autonomous driving market by storm. That ability is made possible largely because the company already has massive production infrastructure in place, as well as millions of affordable vehicles roaming global streets generating heaps of real-world driving data. For Rivian to truly follow Tesla’s lead, it needs to get an affordable vehicle to market.
Fortunately, that’s exactly what Rivian plans to do this year, when deliveries of its R2 SUV — its first model priced under $50,000 — should begin. Launching a mass-market model like this should allow Rivian to expand its production infrastructure, generate more driving data to train its AI models, and get its brand name out to millions of additional potential drivers.
To be clear, Rivian is still years behind Tesla when it comes to executing on these growth catalysts. But the company is investing in all the right categories. If its AI and R2 SUV investments pay off, there’s a real chance we are looking at the next Tesla.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
