Key Points
-
If Bitcoin can grow at a CAGR of 25%, it can regain its all-time high of $126,000 within three years.
-
With the influx of money from institutional investors, Bitcoin may be losing some of its explosive upside potential.
-
Going forward, investors should think of Bitcoin as a high beta tech stock.
- 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›
It’s easy to find outlandish price targets for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). For example, some top investors think that a single Bitcoin will be worth upwards of $1 million within just a few years.
Just how realistic is that target? A more likely scenario is that Bitcoin will regain its all-time high of $126,000 within the next three years. Given a total circulating coin supply of 20 million, that works out to a total market cap of $2.5 trillion.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks »
What is a realistic growth rate for Bitcoin?
Let’s start with the obvious — Bitcoin is no longer growing as fast as it was during its early years. While Bitcoin is still capable of delivering triple-digit returns to investors for years, it is unlikely to have the sort of year that it had in 2013, when it soared in value by 5,429%.
In short, Bitcoin has entered a new maturity phase, powered by a huge influx of money from institutional investors. Bitcoin, like any cryptocurrency, will continue to be volatile. But it will no longer be as explosive as it once was. It will begin to behave more and more like a high beta tech stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
That means investors might need to settle for an annual growth rate of 25%. That figure is in line with what top tech stocks can deliver. Bitcoin, with a $1.3 trillion market cap, certainly fits into that category. That’s roughly the size of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which has a market cap of $1 trillion.
Bitcoin’s path to $126,000
So let’s do the math. Let’s assume that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% over the next three years. Using $65,000 as a starting price, that works out to a final price of roughly $126,000 in three years.
That means Bitcoin will regain its all-time high from October 2025, but it will take some time. At that price, Bitcoin will be worth roughly $2.5 trillion.
Just be aware: A CAGR of 25% does not mean that Bitcoin will churn out 25% gains each year. Instead, that’s the “smoothed-out” growth rate. There will be highs and lows. Bitcoin has always been very cyclical, with the good years more than making up for the bad years.
Maybe a total market cap of $2.5 trillion sounds underwhelming. Perhaps it is. That being said, there’s nothing wrong with a CAGR of 25%. The extra risk that you take by investing in a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin is more than compensated for by the extra return. I’m still bullish on Bitcoin, but I’m also keeping my expectations in check going forward.
Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $390,394!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,209,184!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 899% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 206% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2026.
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
