The United States Supreme Court is likely to rule against the Trump administration on tariffs, according to betting markets.
However, legal analysts are split on how the court will rule.
Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani told Newsweek that he believes the court is inclined to be deferential to President Donald Trump on the matter, while Paul Collins, a professor of legal studies and political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Newsweek that he believes the court will rule against Trump.
Newsweek reached out to the Department of Justice (DOJ) and a spokesperson for V.O.S. Selections, the plaintiff in the tariff case, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The justices on the nation’s highest court heard arguments on Trump’s tariffs last week. Their ruling will have key implications for the tariffs, a signature policy of the president’s second term. Critics have argued that companies will push tariffs onto consumers, resulting in higher costs for Americans. Trump, however, has argued that they will bring long-term benefits to the country, including bringing jobs back from overseas.
The case, Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, is a key test of the scope of executive power as the justices consider whether he can use emergency powers to levy tariffs without approval from Congress. The case centers on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a statute that allows the president to exercise regulatory authority over trade during national emergencies.
What to Know
Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries since his return to office in January. His administration has argued that the tariffs are necessary to address a trade deficit, as well as the flow of fentanyl into the United States. However, lower courts have rejected those arguments, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruling against Trump in August.
The Supreme Court has a 6-3 majority and has handed down favorable rulings toward Trump in some cases, but some justices appeared to be more skeptical of Trump’s tariff arguments last week.
Leading betting odds markets suggest traders believe the Supreme Court is unlikely to side with Trump on the tariffs. Kalshi’s betting odds gave him only a 26 percent chance of victory in the case on Thursday, down from roughly a 46 percent chance of winning the case prior to arguments last week.
Polymarket also showed Trump with a 26 percent chance of winning the case. On November 5, it gave the Supreme Court a 38 percent chance of siding with Trump. That means that the odds in both markets fell after the oral arguments.
Rahmani told Newsweek he believes the court could still side with Trump.
“They’ve generally been deferential to him,” Rahmani said. “Historically, when it comes to matters of foreign policy and national security, they’ve always sided with the executive branch. That has been something that has been exclusively within the authority of the executive branch.”
The administration was able to frame the tariffs around national security, but the justices did seem skeptical that his authority on tariffs would be absolute, he said.
Collins told Newsweek that the oral arguments suggest the court is likely to find that the tariffs “go beyond the power of the president.”
“The oral arguments were rough for the Trump administration. The justices’ questions highlighted a variety of ways the case could be decided, most of which suggest Trump is going to lose,” Collins said. “For instance, Chief Justice Roberts seemed to indicate that the tariffs were a tax on the American people, which is a power of Congress. There were also questions as to whether tariffs are even permissible under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.”
This may be an example of the administration “going too far” for the Supreme Court, he said.
What People Are Saying
Paul Collins told Newsweek: “If the Court rules against the Trump administration, it could be messy to implement the decision. Some have suggested that the government will have to pay back the tariffs. I tend to think that’s unlikely, but the Court will have to wrestle with what a loss for the Trump administration means in practice.”
President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier on Special Report after the arguments: “I heard the court case went well today. But I will say this, it would be devastating for our country if we lost that. It’s one of the most important cases in the history of our country.”
Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, said during Wednesday’s hearing: “Congress, as a practical matter, can’t get this power back once it’s handed over to the president. It’s a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”
What Happens Next
No specific date has been set for the ruling, but it could come as soon as this year if justices view it as urgent. Typically, rulings are handed down by the end of the term, which would be June 2026.
