On the surface, Aston Villa look like one of the less interesting subplots as the Premier League season draws to a close.
An admittedly exhilarating 4-3 win over Sunderland on Sunday means that Unai Emery’s side are perched comfortably within the Champions League places, but lie outside the title race, and look set to serenely close out their league campaign.
But their remaining games — including their Europa League fortunes — will directly shape the fate of multiple clubs, making Villa one of the most consequential actors in the final weeks.
That result on Sunday, coupled with Chelsea’s 1-0 home defeat by Manchester United on Saturday, leaves them 10 points clear of sixth place with five games remaining.
This season, the Premier League has again been awarded an extra Champions League spot thanks to the strong performances of its clubs in Europe. Known as a European Performance Spot (EPS) by UEFA, it means fifth place is enough to qualify, something Villa need just two more wins to secure. Opta’s supercomputer gives them only a 1.43 per cent chance of dropping out of the top five.
Emery will, of course, want to finish as high as possible, but as long as they hold onto a top-five place, the precise position will matter little to their fans. For the teams around them, though, it could be critical.
Villa’s comfortable league standing affords them the breathing room to focus on their other major aim this season: winning the Europa League. They meet Nottingham Forest in the semi-finals and are favourites to end a 30-year trophy drought.
Winning the Europa League itself offers another entry route into its more prestigious cousin. Tottenham Hotspur availed of this backdoor route last season, qualifying by beating Manchester United 1-0 in the final despite finishing 17th in the league.
Unlike Tottenham, Villa could win the Europa League and also finish in the top five, qualifying by two separate routes. Of course, they cannot occupy two places, or store an extra spot away for a rainy day, so one would be passed on by UEFA. The destination of that place would depend on where Villa finished in the league
(Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
What happens if Villa finish in the top four and win the Europa League?
If Villa, currently fourth, stay where they are or finish higher, the Europa League winners’ place would travel beyond English shores and instead go to the highest-ranked team in the Champions League qualifying rounds (based on UEFA club coefficients). The Premier League would remain on five Champions League places.
What if they finish fifth and win the Europa League?
This is where things get more interesting from a Premier League perspective. The aforementioned EPS earned by the Premier League is guaranteed, meaning one club will definitely be awarded this slot. If Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, this EPS would be bumped down to the sixth-placed team, which currently is Chelsea.
This would represent a big stroke of luck for Liam Rosenior’s side, who, having lost their last four games, are now seven points adrift of Liverpool. Without Villa winning the Europa League and finishing fifth, their Champions League hopes hang by a thread.
But this permutation would also bring qualification into play for a host of clubs for whom Champions League football has long been little more than a far-fetched pipe dream.
Brentford and Bournemouth, who have never played in European competition, trail Chelsea on goal difference alone. Brighton & Hove Albion can leapfrog Chelsea tonight by defeating them at home and, along with Everton, sit just a point behind. Sunderland are also within their orbit, two points further back.
Could Brighton or Bournemouth qualify for the next season’s Champions League? (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Why losing to Liverpool could end up helping Chelsea
The chasing pack may be breathing down their neck, but this scenario throws up the possibility that Chelsea could be incentivised to lose against Liverpool next month. Liverpool are three points behind Villa, boast a superior goal difference, and have been eliminated from all other competitions, giving them room to focus solely on the league.
Unless Chelsea achieve the unlikely and overtake Liverpool, it would be in their interests for Arne Slot’s side to finish ahead of Villa, and shunt them down into fifth. Chelsea will still have two more games to play after this but, in the final reckoning, a loss at Anfield might help their Champions League cause.
How this might impact the title race
The Europa League final takes place in Istanbul on Wednesday, May 20, the midweek before the final round of Premier League fixtures. On that last day, Villa travel to Manchester City. Emery’s side are fierce competitors, but the exertions of a final, along with any celebrations should they win it, could impact their performance when they head to Manchester.
Villa have a recent history of losing focus after a marquee result. Two seasons ago, they travelled to Crystal Palace on the final day, having just secured their first Champions League qualification after Manchester City defeated Tottenham 2-0 five days earlier. They were thrashed 5-0 after indulging in some richly deserved celebrations, with players including John McGinn pictured out celebrating in the days that followed the Spurs result.
Arsenal would obviously prefer City to face a motivated, fully-focused Aston Villa. From Mikel Arteta’s perspective, Villa would ideally suffer a dip in form, crash out of the Europa League, and require a result on the final day to secure a top-five finish.
