Next week (August 31–September 6, 2026), the release of several key economic reports could shape market trends for at least the following two weeks, until the US CPI data are published in mid-September. The main focus will be Friday’s US employment report for August. Following the disappointing July figures and downward revisions to the previous three months’ data, the report will be particularly important for the US dollar and a wide range of markets, including stock indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and currency pairs.
Moreover, market participants will assess key macroeconomic data from the US, Australia, Japan, Canada, China, Germany, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, as well as the outcomes of the New Zealand and Canadian central bank meetings. In addition, market participants will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s official manufacturing PMI, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing; Germany’s preliminary CPI data.
- Tuesday: China’s Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Germany’s retail sales; preliminary CPI data for the euro area; the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Wednesday: Australia’s GDP; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision; the US ADP employment report; the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate decision.
- Thursday: Australia’s trade balance; China’s Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI; Switzerland’s CPI data and GDP; the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report hearings; the US ISM Services PMI.
- Friday: Eurozone retail sales; Canada’s employment report; the US employment report.
- Key event: Friday’s release of the US employment report for August.
Monday, August 31
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 49.2, 50.3, 50.0, 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 49.0, 50.2, 50.1, 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the August reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
Tuesday, September 1
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI
The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 50.9, 51.7, 51.8, 52.2, 52.1, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.9, 50.6, 51.2 in September 2025.
A decline in the indicator value and a reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous figures: -1.1% (-0.2% YoY), +1.2% (+1.2% YoY), -0.4% (-0.6% YoY), -0.1% (-2.7% YoY), -0.4% (+0.9% YoY), -1.1% (+1.1% YoY) in January 2026, +1.7% (+4.9% YoY) in December 2025.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
09:00 – EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Core HICP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.9%, +2.8%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +2.6%, +1.9%, +1.7% in January 2026, +2.0% in December 2025.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to rise in the Eurozone.
The ECB is signaling that monetary policy is likely to be tightened, which is a bullish factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.2% in January 2026, +2.3% in December 2025.
If the August 2026 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 55.6, 53.3, 54.0, 52.7, 52.7, 52.4, 52.6 in January 2026, 47.9 in December 2025, 48.0, 48.8, 48.9, 48.9, 48.4, 49.0, 48.6, 48.8, 48.9, 50.0, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.2 in December 2024.
The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
Wednesday, September 2
01:30 – AUD: Australian GDP for Q2
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its report on the country’s GDP, which is the primary indicator of the Australian economy’s health. A strong report will bolster the Australian dollar, while a weak GDP report will drag the currency down.
Previous values: +0.3% (+2.5% YoY) in Q1 2026, +0.9% (+2.5% YoY) in Q4 2025, +0.4% (+2.1% YoY) in Q3 2025, +1.0% (+2.0% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.3% (+1.3% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.4% (+1.2% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in Q3, +0.3% (+0.9% YoY) in Q2, +0.2% (+1.2% YoY) in Q1 2024. A higher reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a lower reading is negative. If the data falls short of the forecast, the currency may decline.
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy-easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to its current level of 2.25%. In July 2026, the rate was raised by 0.25% for the first time since November 2025. Currently, it stands at 2.50%.
After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its decision to lift the interest rate, the New Zealand dollar strengthened. The accompanying statement noted that this decision was made amid expectations of a further acceleration in inflation. At the upcoming meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may opt for another interest rate hike. However, a pause, with monetary policy parameters remaining unchanged, cannot be ruled out either.
Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar’s performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
03:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Press Conference
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will comment on the rate decision. Typically, volatility in the New Zealand dollar increases during the meeting. Orr’s speeches often serve as an unofficial source of information about the future direction of the RBNZ’s monetary policy. He believes that the country’s monetary policy should be aligned with the country’s employment performance and financial stability, as well as inflation.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in August after 44k in July, 95k in June, 122k in May, +105k in April, +61k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
13:45 – CAD: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Accompanying Statement
At its June 5, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75% for the first time since July 2023. Over the course of 2024, it reduced the rate by a total of 1.75% (175 basis points), and in October 2025, brought it down further to the current 2.25%.
It is unclear what decision the Bank of Canada’s policymakers will make this time, given the ongoing events in the Middle East and the sharp rise in oil prices. The bank may decide to take a pause at this meeting.
The hawkish tone of the Bank of Canada’s accompanying statement regarding the outlook for monetary policy will bolster the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals its intention to pursue an accommodative monetary policy, the currency will weaken.
14:30 – CAD: Bank of Canada Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will outline the bank’s stance and assess the country’s current economic situation. If the tone of his remarks appears hawkish, the Canadian dollar will strengthen on the currency market. If Tiff Macklem advocates maintaining a loose monetary policy, the Canadian currency will weaken. In any case, the Canadian dollar is expected to experience high volatility during his remarks.
Thursday, September 3
01:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio of exports to imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous figures (in billions of Australian dollars): +1,929 in June, -2,367 in May, 1,587 in April, -1,710 in March, 5,092 in February, 2,397 in January 2026, 3,467 in December 2025.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 50.1, 54.1, 54.4, 52.6, 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In July 2026, consumer inflation posted -0.1% (+0.4% YoY), following 0% (+0.5% YoY), +0.2% (+0.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+0.3% YoY), +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), and 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
07:00 – CHF: Switzerland’s GDP for Q2 2026
GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of a country’s economy, which measures its growth or decline rate. The GDP report represents the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced by Switzerland over a given period. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the Swiss franc, while a low result is considered negative.
Previous values: +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in Q1 2026, +0.1% (+0.7% YoY) in Q4 2025, -0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in Q4 2025, -0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in Q2, +0.5% (+2.0% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.2% (+1.5% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.4% (+2.0% YoY) in Q3, +0.7% (+1.8% YoY) in Q2, +0.5% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1, +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q4 2023, +0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in Q3, 0% (+0.5% YoY) in Q2, +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1 2023.
The data indicate that the Swiss economy is recovering, albeit still at a slow pace, which is a positive factor for the Swiss franc.
If the data prove to be lower than forecast, the Swiss franc may decline in the short term. However, the currency will not fall sharply, as it is in strong demand as a defensive asset. Better-than-forecast data may strengthen the franc in the short term.
Expected After 08:30 – GBP: Inflation Report Hearing
The Bank of England Governor and members of its Monetary Policy Committee will speak to Parliament about the current state of the economy and its future outlook. During this address, volatility in the British pound may rise sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the UK monetary policy outlook, apart from GDP, is the inflation rate. If the tone of the report is soft, the UK stock market will be supported, and the pound will decline. Conversely, the hawkish tone of the Bank of England officials regarding curbing inflation, implying an interest rate hike, will lead to the strengthening of the pound.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 54.1 in July, 54.0 in June, 54.5 in May, 53.6 in April, 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Friday, September 4
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures: -0.3% (+0.7% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), -0.3% (+0.9% YoY), +0.8% (+2.1% YoY), -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), 0% (+2.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+2.1% YoY) in December 2025.
12:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s July labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In July 2026, unemployment stood at 6.4% against 6.5% in June, 6.6% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March and February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
Previous values: +0.1% in July, +0.3% in June and May, +0.2% in April and March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.1% in December 2025 / 57,000 in June, 129,000 in May, 148,000 in April, 214,000 in March, -156,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, -17,000 in December 2025 / 4.2% in June, 4.3% in May, April, and March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025.
Overall, the data is broadly positive, except for the sharp drop in July nonfarm payrolls, which goes against expectations for growth, and downward revisions to the figures for April through June. However, it is often difficult to predict how the market will react because previous data may be revised. This is even more challenging now, as the economic outlook in the US and other major economies remains mixed, with risks of both recession and high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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