Three of the world’s largest central banks—the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan—will hold policy meetings during the final week of the month. The Fed’s decision is expected to be the key event of the week (July 27–August 2, 2026).
Investors will also be closely watching major macroeconomic releases from Australia, Germany, the eurozone, the US, Japan, and China.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
- Wednesday: Australian CPI figures, Fed interest rate decision.
- Thursday: German GDP, Eurozone GDP, Bank of England interest rate decision, German CPI numbers, US GDP, US PCE figures, Japan’s CPI data.
- Friday: China’s PMI readings, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Eurozone CPI.
- Key event of the week: Fed meeting and interest rate decision.
Monday, July 27
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Tuesday, July 28
03:05 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s Speech
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends, rising energy prices caused by the military conflict in the Middle East, and elevated inflation in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
14:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 91.2, 93.1, 92.8, 91.8, 91.2, 84.5, 89.1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while a decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, July 29
01:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index. Australia Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values YoY: +4.0% in June, +4.2% in April, +4.6% in March, +3.7% in February, +3.8% in January 2026 and December 2025, +3.4% in November, +3.8% in October, +3.6% in September, +3.2% in August, +3.0% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, inflation risks have shifted to the upside. Some market participants are already pricing in an increase to 4.85% in 2026, which supports the Australian dollar in the medium term.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
The trimmed mean measure of core inflation in Australia is published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the retail price of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The trimmed mean takes into account the weighted average of the middle 70% of index components.
Previous YoY values: +3.6%, +3.4%, +3.3% in March, February, and January 2026, +3.3% in December 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +2.8%, +3.0%, +3.1% in April 2025.
The data suggest that inflationary pressures remain robust. If the indicator reading turns out to be worse than expected, the Australian dollar will likely weaken. Conversely, if the indicator value exceeds the forecast, it may positively impact the currency in the short term.
18:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy
As former Fed Chair Powell previously noted, the US central bank’s leadership has shifted its focus toward maintaining stability in the labor market. At the same time, Powell emphasized that interest rate decisions would continue to depend on current economic conditions.
However, amid rising inflation in the US, partly driven by higher oil prices, and the hawkish stance of most Fed officials, most market participants expect the central bank to continue tightening monetary policy.
At this meeting, the Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Comments by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, may affect both short-term and long-term movements of the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors eagerly await Warsh’s remarks on the Fed’s future plans.
18:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. It begins with the Chair delivering a prepared statement, followed by a Q&A session with journalists, which can trigger increased market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Warsh regarding the Fed’s monetary policy will spark volatility in the dollar and the US stock market.
Thursday, July 30
06:00 – EUR: German GDP for Q2 (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is one of the key indicators (along with labor market and inflation data) for a country’s central bank in formulating monetary policy. A strong result boosts the euro, while a weak GDP report negatively affects the currency. In Q1 2026, GDP posted +0.3% (+0.4% YoY), after +0.2% (+0.4% YoY) in Q4 2025, 0% (+0.3% YoY) in Q3, -0.2% (-0.2% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.4% (-0.2% YoY) in Q1 2025.
If the GDP decreases in Q2 2026, the euro will face pressure. Conversely, positive GDP data will support the currency.
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone GDP for Q2 (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall economic health. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is positive for the euro, while a low reading weakens the currency.
Previous values: -0.2% (+0.3% YoY) in Q1 2026, +0.2% (+1.2% YoY) in Q4 2025, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+1.6% YoY) in Q2, +0.6% (+1.6% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.4% (+1.3% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.4% (+1.0% YoY) in Q3, +0.2% (+0.6% YoY) in Q2, and +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1 2024.
If the data is below the forecast and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Conversely, readings exceeding the predicted values may strengthen the euro in the short term. However, the European economy is still far from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels.
11:00 – GBP: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. Bank of England Meeting Minutes
Since the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England has maintained a wait-and-see stance. Finally, on August 1, 2024, the central bank cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking the first cut since August 2023. The current interest rate is 3.75%.
At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of England may either cut interest rates again, due to the challenging situation in the country’s labor market, or pause, or raise rates again, amid persistently high inflation.
More and more analysts believe that the BoE will raise interest rates. The market’s reaction to such a move will be completely unpredictable.
At the same time, the BoE will publish the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, including a breakdown of the votes for and against interest rate changes. The main UK risks after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large deficit in the UK balance of payments account.
Uncertainty about the Bank of England’s next step persists. Meanwhile, the British Pound and FTSE100 futures offer a lot of trading opportunities during the publication of the Bank’s rate decision.
11:30 – GBP: Bank of England Governor’s Speech
Andrew Bailey will comment on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Besides, Andrew Bailey will likely discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation.
The British pound and the FTSE London Stock Exchange often show significant volatility during the Bank of England Governor’s speech, especially if he hints at changes in monetary policy.
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.4%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the July reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q2 (Preliminary Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q1 2026, GDP posted +2.1% after +0.5% in Q4 2025, +4.4% in Q3, +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q2 2026, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.4% in May, +3.3% in April, +3.2% in March, +3.0%, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.0% in December 2025, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.8% in January 2025.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price index, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, measures the change in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. Since Tokyo is the most densely populated region in Japan, this index is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +1.7%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.4%, +1.5%, +1.5%, +2.0%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +1.9%, +1.6%, +1.9%, +2.3%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, July 31
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 50.3, 50.0, 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.2, 50.1, 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Expected After 02:00 (Exact Time Not Specified) – JPY: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Statement and Commentary on Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%. However, at its March 19, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Japan’s board members decided to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points, from -0.1% to 0%, for the first time since 2007, ending the period of negative interest rates that began in 2016.
Currently, Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands at 1.00% and is expected to remain unchanged. If the rate is lowered, the yen may weaken, while the Japanese stock market could rise. In any case, heightened volatility in the yen and across Asian financial markets is anticipated during this period.
According to analysts, if the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.
The commentary and accompanying statement will reflect the views of the bank’s board members regarding the adopted decision and the outlook for monetary policy.
06:30 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy and interest rate decision. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches of the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.
09:00 – EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Core HICP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.8%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +2.6%, +1.9%, +1.7% in January 2026, +2.0% in December 2025.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to rise in the Eurozone.
The ECB is signaling that monetary policy is likely to be tightened, which is a bullish factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.2% in January 2026, +2.3% in December 2025.
If the July 2026 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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