The U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement this coming weekend and is not expected to change the Federal Funds Rate. Now that this bit of information is out of the way, day traders should continue to focus on sentiment shifts developing because of the lack of clarity regarding the situation in the Middle East and its effects on the costs of energy, and the relationship between the E.U and the U.S which appears to be fragile and may have economic consequences in the future.
Yes, the EUR/USD did climb to a high of nearly 1.17915 early on Monday, but soon began to falter this as USD centric strength started develop once again. The rhetoric coming from the U.S White House and Iran continues to be the main source of anxious conditions in the global markets and its effect on the broad Forex market is apparent.
The coming U.S Federal Reserve meeting pronouncements will continue to take a backseat to nervousness taking place in financial institutions as they try to gear their mid-term outlooks towards the circumstances of the Iranian war.
Day traders trying to catch a small change in the value of the EUR/USD have had plenty of opportunities and this is not going to change near-term. The problem is finding the exact moment influence will remain strong, or on the other hand suddenly change directions. Retail traders have been getting hammered in Forex with losing bets because of the changing conditions taking place quickly. Large institutions have likely taken hits too.
The EUR/USD may look oversold at its present level, but going into this weekend the noise coming from the White House and Iran has not faded. In fact, it looks like Monday’s opening in global markets could be tested quickly. The one thing that may be on the side of traders is that the market ended Friday’s trading with some nervousness too. Meaning that folks may have been braced for additional turbulence already. Will that equate into another dose of EUR/USD selling early or actual buying?
It doesn’t appear that a sudden peace agreement is going to develop via the Iranian war.
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However, the Trump White House has periodically surprised the global marketplace with optimistic viewpoints too which have changed sentiment fast.
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The coming days don’t appear to hold the promise of compromise, and this may play into near-term EUR/USD values.
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But before sellers get too bold, or bulls get negative, a look at a three month chart shows the currency pair within the middle of it value.
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The EUR/USD has gone lower before and then rapidly reversed, traders beware.
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.16100 to 1.17900
And speculators need to be cautious regarding what they believe will happen next, because worst case scenarios may have been digested by financial institutions already. Meaning there is a chance the EUR/USD may not challenge lows seen in March and that the 1.17000 level can hold. However, if 1.17000 is tested early this week lower, then looking for the 1.16700 support levels to develop might not be unreasonable. Trying to figure out what will happen due to the rhetoric coming from the U.S White House and Iran is difficult as they both issue threats.
The broad Forex market has not been a place traders have found easy to navigate the past two months. Conditions are likely to remain challenging for everyone. Sentiment is providing swift turns and value moves in the EUR/USD, and among the other major currency pairs too. While it is easy to offer an opinion on the current state of trading it has not been easy to offer an outlook for the near-term that is confident and this has caused a profound amount of the whipsaw results seen in the EUR/USD .
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