A decade of technological advances and strategic pressure has changed the balance before the two leaders return to a difficult negotiating table.
Xi Jinping’s expected visit to Washington will take place at a time when China has a much stronger negotiating position than it did during the Chinese leader’s previous meeting with Donald Trump in 2017. At the time, Beijing was at a disadvantage to the United States in a number of areas and remained vulnerable to trade and technology pressure. The Trump administration later intensified that pressure.
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Over nearly a decade, China has become one of the world’s leading technology hubs. Its companies are advancing artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, space technology, semiconductors, and renewable energy. Chinese space companies are testing reusable rockets, while manufacturers of electric vehicles, solar panels, and microchips are expanding their presence in global markets.
Last year, China’s foreign trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion. Control over certain supply chains, particularly the mining and processing of rare-earth metals, gives Beijing additional leverage in its confrontation with Washington.
Chinese political circles are increasingly saying that the period of one-sided US demands on Beijing is over. Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies in Shanghai and a government adviser on foreign policy, believes that China has become more confident and has learned how to counter American pressure.
Washington must treat Beijing more equally and with respect. These relations should become increasingly reciprocal.
– Wu Xinbo
Technological self-reliance strengthens China’s position
Beijing’s confidence is largely based on the diversification of trade and the development of its own technologies. China is directing substantial financial resources and political support toward industries intended to reduce the country’s dependence on American companies.
At the same time, China’s economic growth remains uneven. Youth unemployment has reached its highest level in recent years, hundreds of millions of workers depend on platform-based employment, and consumer demand remains weak. Local governments carry substantial debt, while the real estate crisis continues.
Huawei is an example of the technological rivalry. The company was placed on the blacklist by the first Trump administration. Chinese users point out that Huawei’s foldable smartphones appeared seven years before Apple’s first foldable model. The company has also announced plans to release the next generation of its Ascend artificial intelligence chips earlier than expected.
We cannot accept a fate in which others determine our future by deciding whether or not to sell chips to China.
– Eric Xu, Huawei’s rotating chairman
One of the Chinese delegation’s objectives in Washington will be to try to persuade the United States not to impose new technology restrictions. Beijing wants greater predictability in economic and technological relations, as well as political safeguards to prevent issues involving Taiwan and access to technology from destabilizing bilateral ties.
Both sides understand that excessively harsh measures could once again bring their economies close to a complete rupture. The previous truce in the trade war became possible after Beijing threatened to expand export restrictions on strategically important rare-earth metals. This came in response to US plans to add more Chinese companies to its sanctions lists.
China expands its international influence
According to a Pew Research Center poll published in July, China was viewed more favorably than the United States in most of the 36 countries surveyed. Xi Jinping also surpassed Donald Trump in terms of trust among respondents.
China’s influence is growing not only because of its economy. Chinese artificial intelligence models, electric vehicles, and cultural products – including Labubu toys and Chinese television series – are spreading in countries around the world. This is increasing interest in the country and encouraging tourism.
Beijing is also more actively promoting its own vision of the international order. At the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Xi Jinping offered assistance in developing “smart” factories and artificial intelligence models. During a visit to Egypt, he presented the idea of a new security architecture for the Middle East that would not depend on American military support.
Iran could become a separate topic of the negotiations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Beijing to lay the groundwork for the two countries’ leaders to discuss the issue. Beijing may oppose sanctions on Chinese banks and companies cooperating with Iran and urge Washington to seek a diplomatic rather than military solution to the conflict.
China is interested in stable relations with the United States, but its further economic and technological development no longer depends on American approval. It is this shift in the balance of power that will likely determine the tone of the future negotiations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
