Sept. 23, 2026, 2:42 p.m. ET
Chinese automakers could take 11% of the U.S. market share by the end of the next decade if guardrails designed to keep the manufacturing giant out are undone, an industry expert said Wednesday, Sept. 23.
Mobility Global forecasted sales of 1.7 million Chinese vehicles per year by 2038 if that country’s makers were allowed into the U.S. market.
The chance of China selling vehicles in the United States is currently low to moderate, said Peter Nagle, a Mobility Global analyst and expert in North American forecasting. He said there are “significant” policy and regulatory barriers that now make it nearly impossible for the manufacturing giant to set up shop in the United States.
But based on President Donald Trump’s rapid changes to trade and electric vehicle policy, Nagle said it’s worth considering which automakers and vehicle segments “stand to gain and lose the most” if China enters the U.S. auto game.
Predictions about such a scenario come as General Motors Co. CEO Mary Barra prepares to attend a state dinner with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, Reuters reported.
U.S. automakers have warned against allowing Chinese manufacturers into the market. Trump has said he “loves” the idea.
The main competition Chinese automakers would pose to companies such as GM, Ford Motor Co. and Jeep maker Stellantis NV is “significantly more affordable” pricing, Nagle said.
“It does have some benefits for the consumer,” Nagle said of a Chinese entry into the U.S. auto market. “Besides the cannibalization from the legacy manufacturers here, we would see affordability improve.”
