The Bond Market Is Sending an Unmistakable Message to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC: Act!

It’s been a history-packed year for the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) catapulting to new highs and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) rewriting Wall Street’s record books with the largest-ever initial public offering.

But the highlight of 2026 might just be Kevin Warsh being sworn in as only the 17th Fed chair in the central bank’s nearly 113-year history.

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Warsh has wasted little time shaking things up. In his three months at the helm, he’s shelved forward-looking guidance in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statements and has seemingly established price stability as the central bank’s top priority.

However, the one thing Warsh and his FOMC colleagues haven’t done is take any action amid persistently elevated inflation… and that’s a mistake, according to the bond market.

Bond yields are soaring for two very good reasons

Treasury bond yields at the long end of the yield curve (10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds) have been steadily climbing throughout the year, with the 30-year yield reaching levels last seen during the financial crisis. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing plans last week to double bond repurchases, yields keep climbing.

One reason the long end of the yield curve is tipping the scales at a 19-year high is America’s staggering debt pile. Last week, total debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. Higher yields signal that massive federal deficits aren’t sustainable.

But the bigger catalyst is, arguably, Trumpflation. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the effects of the Iran war are increasing consumer prices. Worse yet, the price stickiness of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy costs, indicates that the effects of Trumpflation have spread well beyond the energy sector.

Even though headline inflation dropped to 3.4% in July from a three-year peak of 4.2% in May, Core PCE implies that Trumpflation is now entrenched in the broader economy.

The bond market wants Kevin Warsh and the FOMC to act

When Fed Chair Warsh removed forward-looking guidance from FOMC statements, he inadvertently increased volatility in the bond market. With the prevailing inflation rate well above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, bond traders have responded by selling bonds and notably increasing yields.

In other words, the bond market has been increasing long-term borrowing costs and modestly tapping the brakes on inflation, all without the Fed altering its monetary policy.

But the bond market can’t deliver price stability on its own. The fact that long-duration Treasury yields were higher just days after Bessent announced the Treasury Department’s bond market intervention signals that the bond market demands action from Warsh and the FOMC.

At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, three regional presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike. It’s the first time a new Fed chair has faced at least three dissents in 56 years! Policymakers are divided over the lasting impacts of Trumpflation and have thus far been unwilling to act. However, for Fed Chair Warsh to deliver on his repeated promise of price stability, raising interest rates may be the only solution.

Higher borrowing costs could be a nightmare scenario for a historically expensive stock market that’s reliant on debt financing to fuel the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out. Nevertheless, action may be necessary to satiate a clearly unnerved bond market.

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The Bond Market Is Sending an Unmistakable Message to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC: Act! was originally published by The Motley Fool