The market remains gripped by extreme volatility. Geopolitical developments continue to dominate sentiment, overshadowing key macroeconomic data. Nevertheless, during the week of August 3–9, 2026, investors will closely monitor important economic releases from China, Germany, Switzerland, the US, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the Eurozone.
Friday’s release of the US Department of Labor’s July employment report will undoubtedly be the key event of the week.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s manufacturing PMI, Germany’s retail sales, Switzerland’s CPI, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Tuesday: New Zealand labor market data.
- Wednesday: China’s Services PMI, the ADP Employment Report, and the U.S. ISM Services PMI.
- Thursday: Australia’s trade balance, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation expectations survey, and Eurozone retail sales.
- Friday: Canadian labor market data and the US employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls).
- Key event of the week: Friday’s release of the US July employment report.
Monday, August 3
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI
The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 51.7, 51.8, 52.2, 52.1, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.9, 50.6, 51.2 in September 2025.
A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous figures: +1.1% (+1.8% YoY), -0.4% (-0.6% YoY), -0.1% (-2.7% YoY), -0.4% (+0.9% YoY), -1.1% (+1.1% YoY) in January 2026, +1.7% (+4.9% YoY) in December 2025.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In June 2026, consumer inflation posted 0% (+0.5%), following +0.2% (+0.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+0.3% YoY), +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), and 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 53.3, 54.0, 52.7, 52.7, 52.4, 52.6 in January 2026, 47.9 in December 2025, 48.0, 48.8, 48.9, 48.9, 48.4, 49.0, 48.6, 48.8, 48.9, 50.0, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.2 in December 2024.
The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
Tuesday, August 4
22:45 – NZD: New Zealand Employment Change. Unemployment Rate for Q2
The employment change reflects the quarterly change in the number of employed New Zealand citizens. An increase in an indicator value positively affects consumer spending, thereby stimulating economic growth. A high indicator reading is favorable for the New Zealand dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values: +0.2% in Q1 2026, +0.5% in Q4 2025, 0.0% in Q3 2025, -0.1% in Q2 2025, +0.1% in Q1 2025, -0.2% in Q4 2024, -0.6% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, -0.4% in Q1 2024.
At the same time, Stats NZ publishes a report on the unemployment rate, an indicator that measures the proportion of unemployed individuals relative to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator values signals a weakening labor market, leading to a slowdown in the national economy. Conversely, a decrease is viewed positively, often strengthening the value of the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: 5.3% in Q1 2026, 5.4% in Q4 2025, 5.3% in Q3 2025, 5.2% in Q2 2025, 5.1% in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, 4.9% in Q3, 4.7% in Q2, 4.4% in Q1 2024.
If other indicators in the Stats NZ report show signs of decline, the New Zealand dollar will likely weaken. Worse-than-expected data could have an even more pronounced negative effect on the currency.
Wednesday, August 5
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 54.1, 54.4, 52.6, 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in July after 98k in June, 122k in May, +105k in April, +61k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 54.0 in June, 54.5 in May, 53.6 in April, 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Thursday, August 6
01:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio of exports to imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): -3.018 in May, 1.383 in April, -1.024 in March, 5.026 in February, 2.258 in January, 3.373 in December, 2.597 in November, 4.353 in October, 3.707 in September, 1.111 in August, 6.612 in July, 5.366 in June, 1.604 in May, 4.859 in April, 6.892 in March, 2.921 in February, 5.156 in January 2025, 4.924 in December, 6.792 in November, 5.670 in October, 4.5362 in September, 5.284 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
03:00 – NZD: Inflation Expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for Q3
The indicator measures consumers’ expectations regarding annual inflation over the next 24 months. An increase in these expectations can significantly influence the likelihood of an interest rate hike. A high indicator value is a positive factor for the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: +2.53 in Q2, +2.37% in Q1 2026, +2.28% in Q4 2025, +2.28% in Q3 2025, +2.29% in Q2 2025, +2.06% in Q1 2025, +2.12% in Q4 2024, +2.03%, +2.33%, +2.50% in Q1 2024, +2.76%, +2.83%, +2.79%, +3.3%, +3.62% in Q4 2022.
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures: +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), -0.3% (+0.9% YoY), +0.8% (+2.1% YoY), -0.5% (+1.3% YoY) and 0% (+2.2% YoY) in January 2026, and +0.2% (+2.1% YoY) in December 2025.
Friday, August 7
12:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s July labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In June 2026, unemployment stood at 6.5% against 6.6% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March and February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
The most significant US labor market indicators for July.
Previous values: +0.3% in June and May, +0.2% in April and March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.1% in December 2025 / 57,000 in June, 129,000 in May, 148,000 in April, 214,000 in March, -156,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, -17,000 in December 2025 / 4.2% in June, 4.3% in May, April, and March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025.
Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies, with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
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