Why Xi Jinping’s North Korea trip is really about Russia – Firstpost

Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting North Korea in a bid to bolster ties with the isolated state. The leader has arrived in Pyongyang for a two-day visit starting Monday (June 8), Xi’s first such trip to North Korea in seven years.

All eyes will be on Pyongyang as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hosts Xi. The visit comes close on the heels of the
Chinese president’s recent meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. For Beijing, Moscow’s growing ties with North Korea are a big concern.

We explain.

Chin’s relationship with North Korea

China and North Korea have had formal relations since 1949, shortly after the communist-led states were established in the wake of World War II.

Their ties are “forged in blood”, as both neighbours say, a reference to the Korean War. China had supported North Korea in the Korean War, fought between 1950–53.

While the relationship has been largely stable, a strain has developed between China and North Korea in recent years. Mutual distrust has also further complicated their ties.

North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have always made Beijing, which wants stability on its border, uncomfortable. China had called Pyongyang’s first nuclear weapon test in 2006 a “flagrant and brazen” violation of international consensus and responded by supporting UN sanctions.

The ties had further frayed over the execution of Kim’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, whom China perceived to be a stabilising figure, as per BBC.

In 2014, Xi visited South Korea before even meeting Kim, a move widely seen as a slight. At the time, North Korea had labelled China a “turncoat and our enemy.”

Ties were back on track only after Kim travelled to Beijing on his armoured train in 2018 as sanctions squeezed the hermit kingdom. The North Korean leader later went on to meet US and South Korean leaders, but only after consulting China.

While Beijing has punished Pyongyang over its nuclear programme, China remains North Korea’s largest trading partner.

According to the Washington-based think tank the National Committee on North Korea, Pyongyang relies on China for up to 95 per cent of total trade, 85 per cent of its exports and nearly all of its imports.

China’s exports to North Korea jumped to around $2.3 billion last year, the highest level in six years.

Beijing has only one formal defence treaty, which it signed with North Korea in 1961. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), commonly called North Korea.

Significance of Xi’s North Korea visit

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in North Korea from June 8-9. This is his first visit to the hermit kingdom since 2019 — the first such visit by a Chinese leader since 2005.

For Beijing, North Korea’s growing ties with Russia threaten its influence over the isolated state.

After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has enhanced military cooperation with Moscow. The two sides signed a mutual defence pact during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in 2024.

North Korea has reportedly provided Russia with critical weapons, artillery and manpower in exchange for oil and aid. About 2,300
North Korean soldiers have died fighting for Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, according to a BBC investigation.

Moscow has paid North Korea $14.4 billion for troop deployments and the export of “artillery, shells, and guided and ballistic missiles” since 2023, as per estimates by South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy, a government-funded research institute.

Lee Sang Yong, a Seoul-based journalist and researcher who tracks Pyongyang, told Al Jazeera that China will be cautious of how far Russia’s influence over North Korea extends.
“Beijing likely wants to reassert its influence over North Korea and prevent Pyongyang from leaning too heavily toward Moscow,” he said on Xi’s visit.

Beijing would not be thrilled about a potential outcome where Russia becomes the dominant influence in North Korea.

“China wants to ensure that its interests vis-a-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang,” Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was quoted as saying by BBC.

Late last year, Kim attended a military parade in Beijing, where he was seen prominently by Xi’s side along with Putin. China and North Korea have since resumed some passenger rail and air services.

This was Xi and Kim’s first formal summit in six years. The Chinese leader hailed the two as “good neighbours, good friends and good comrades bound by a shared destiny”, calling for closer strategic coordination.

Not just Russia, China is also wary about North Korea acquiring new military technology, William Yang, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Northeast Asia, told Al Jazeera. 

“Beijing has always been very careful about providing military assistance to North Korea because they do not see a militarily stronger North Korea as necessarily in its favour,” he said.

“A North Korea that is militarily emboldened through its relationship with Russia could be a potential source of disruption to the balance of power and status quo on the Korean Peninsula.”

Last week, Kim called for an “exponential” expansion of the country’s arsenal, reported the North Korean state news agency, KCNA.

Speaking to AFP, Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) think tank said that Beijing is keeping an eye on North Korea’s “extremely rapid” nuclear programme.

“This aspect needs to be managed. If North Korea acts in a provocative and belligerent manner, it could trigger regional conflict, which could run counter to China’s interests,” Hong said.

Xi’s visit to North Korea comes shortly after he hosted Putin, with the two leaders discussing the United States-Israel war with Iran.

The trip also assumes importance as the Chinese leader has significantly curtailed his foreign trips. World leaders have been flying to Beijing to meet Xi. Before Putin, it was US President Donald Trump who headed to China.

“We need to remember that Xi Jinping has not really travelled abroad that much,” Yang of the Crisis Group pointed out. “The growing trend is foreign leaders heading to Beijing to meet with him.

“For Xi Jinping to be the one who decides to travel to Pyongyang, it shows the level of significance that China attaches to this trip.”

One expected outcome of Xi’s visit is Beijing increasing its economic support for Pyongyang, as it seeks to curb Russia’s growing influence over the hermit kingdom. “Offering North Korea economic incentives” might be the plan, Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow at the Stimson Center’s Korea Program, told Al Jazeera.

North Korea’s rival, South Korea, is also keeping a close watch on the Chinese leader’s trip, saying it hopes the visit will “play a constructive role in addressing issues related to the Korean Peninsula”.

With inputs from agencies