25 June 2026
What percentage of Europe’s new light vehicle market will electric vehicles (EVs) account for this year? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus and special content editor Phil Curry discuss EV Volumes’ forecast in the Automotive Update podcast.
This episode unpacks the latest update from EV Volumes’ forecasting team. Listen now for key insights into new EV sales in Europe, alongside projections for the region’s big five markets. Which factors could most affect sales of electric models in the future?
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Growth forecast for Europe
The light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), increased by a modest 0.9% in Europe during 2025. However, several factors have recently affected forecasts for the years ahead.
EV Volumes forecasts that light-vehicle sales in Western and Central Europe will grow by 2.6% year on year in 2026. This is higher than in its March 2026 forecast, which projected a 0.1% increase.
Yet at 15.5 million units, this is far below the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019. Moreover, it is not expected that volumes will return to that level within the current forecast horizon to 2040.
Light-vehicle sales are then projected to increase in 2027. However, this hinges on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors. Additionally, slight dips in demand are expected in 2030 and 2035. This will come as demand is pulled forward into 2029 and 2034, triggered by stricter EU emissions targets.
Policy push for EVs in Europe
A number of new policies have been proposed or passed in recent months, which could impact European light-vehicle markets. These may apply especially to EVs, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
In February 2026, the EU Commission approved the new End‑of‑Life Vehicles Regulation (ELVR). This requires manufacturers to use more recyclable or reusable materials in new cars and vans.
Work also continues on European-first regulation. This could allow only EVs manufactured in Europe, consisting of at least 70% locally-sourced components, to qualify for subsidies and public procurement.
Meeting emissions targets and circularity requirements will require a major increase in EV sales, according to EV Volumes’ forecasting team. This could trigger competitive pricing cuts, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.
Impact of the Automotive package
On 16 December 2025, the European Commission unveiled its Automotive Package. This introduced a revised CO2 reduction pathway and compliance mechanisms for the 2030 to 2035 period.
If passed, from 2035, carmakers will need to cut tailpipe CO2 emissions of passenger vehicles by 90% against 2021 levels. This is instead of the original 100% planned cut. The remaining 10% could be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels, or biofuels.
This means PHEVs, extended-range electric vehicles, hybrids, and even traditional ICE models, could be bought new beyond 2035. This would be alongside BEVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
The package also suggests greater flexibility for the 2030 target. Manufacturers would have a three-year compliance period between 2030 and 2032 to achieve the 55% reduction compared to 2021.
Additional proposed measures include updated labelling rules covering EV range and energy consumption. There may also be ‘super credits’ for small, affordable EVs produced in the EU. Additionally, a €1.8 billion battery support package is proposed to accelerate the European battery value chain.
Further EV growth forecast
Assuming measures are adopted as outlined, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will account for 56.7% of European light-vehicle sales by 2030. This will increase to 83% by 2035, and 95.1% by 2040.
These projections assume emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies. Some markets, such as Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands, are likely to maintain stricter targets.
The UK is not subject to the EU’s automotive package. It currently plans for an effective ban on new petrol and diesel passenger cars by 2030.
However, the country’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate has been under pressure in recent months, due to missed overall targets. There are calls for the legislation to undergo an urgent review, ahead of a planned consultation next year. Yet no official announcement has been made.
Europe’s big five expect growth
Europe’s largest five markets have all seen differing performances across their new light-vehicle markets in recent years. This is likely to continue, according to EV Volumes’ latest forecast.
France experienced a 5.1% drop in combined sales of passenger cars and LCVs in 2025. This is set to turn around in 2027 with a 1.1% rise. Volumes will continue to improve until 2030, when the market is forecast to experience a 0.8% decline.
However, after three years of marginal share improvement, EVs will see their hold of the overall market in France leap. The technology is forecast to achieve a 31.3% share this year, up from 23.8% in 2025.
This share will continue to rise, reaching 55% by 2030, and 83.7% by 2035. EVs are then expected to make up 95.4% of new-vehicle sales by 2040.
Meanwhile, Germany’s light-vehicle market will only see marginal gains until 2030, including a 1% increase in sales this year. At the start of the next decade, volumes will fall 1.3% but will then continue to improve until 2035.
The country saw a dip in the market share of EVs in both 2023 and 2024, as incentive schemes came to an end. However, the powertrain group picked up in 2025, although still below the 29.2% share recorded in 2022.
This will change in 2026, with EV Volumes forecasting a share of 35.8%, rising to 60.4% by 2030. This EV hold will continue to increase, hitting 89.2% by 2035, before levelling out to 96.7% in 2040.
Italy and Spain embrace EVs
Italy’s new light-vehicle market saw a decline in 2025, but can expect a 6.1% increase in volumes this year. Like other markets, volumes will continue to improve for the rest of this decade, before dipping in 2030.
But the country has been the slowest adopter of EVs among the EU’s big five. Like Germany, the country experienced a dip in market share during 2024. But it bounced back in 2025, and is forecast to reach 17% of the overall market in 2026.
This trend should continue, hitting 40.1% in 2030. This is the lowest market share amongst Europe’s major markets, however. The theme continues, with a hold of 65.8% in 2035, before EVs take 90.3% of new light-vehicle sales in 2040.
Spain’s new light-vehicle market has been the most stable of Europe’s big five in recent years. The market is forecast to improve by 6% this year, with growth continuing until a marginal 0.4% decline in 2030.
Spain has begun to embrace EVs, although its shares are still below those of France, Germany and the UK. Like other continental markets, its shares dipped in 2024. The country bounced back last year, and for 2026, a hold of 22.1% is forecast. This should improve to 47.9% by 2030, before reaching 78.8% in 2035, and achieving a hold of 93.5% by 2040.
UK growth will miss target
New light-vehicle sales in the UK should jump by 4% this year. Like other markets in Europe’s big five, it is expected to grow further until a 1.1% decline in 2030.
The country has a ZEV mandate in place, with target market shares for BEVs and fuel-cell vehicles. However, EV Volumes forecasts a 0% share for hydrogen models through to 2040, placing the mandate responsibility on BEVs alone.
Different shares are targeted for passenger cars and LCVs. In the first two years since the legislation was adopted, the market has failed to meet targets on either vehicle type. This has led to calls for an earlier consultation on the mandate.
The UK is expected to hit a combined light-vehicle EV share of 38.3% this year. The hold is expected to increase to 69.5% by 2030, reaching 94.4% in 2035. The market should see 98% of sales coming from EVs by 2040.
However, in isolation, the BEV passenger car market is forecast to continue falling short of ZEV mandate targets. All-electric models are forecast to account for 27.4% of the market this year, below the 33% requirement.
EV Volumes forecasts a 32.3% hold in 2027, lower than the mandated 38%. In 2030, when the UK government requires 80% of new-car sales to be zero-emission, 60.7% of the total is forecast to come from BEVs.
The LCV sector will fare even worse. EV Volumes forecasts an 11.6% share this year, well below the expected 24% in the ZEV mandate. By 2030, when a 70% hold is required, the latest data suggests just 35.7% of all new van sales will be zero-emission.
