USD/CAD recovered last week but upside is capped by 1.3709 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.3549 will extend the fall from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. However, sustained break of 1.3709 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3965 resistance again.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3581) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.
