President Donald Trump’s war with Iran hasn’t exactly been a rousing success so far. And much of the American public expects that the conflict’s end — whenever that will be — won’t change that.
Polling in recent weeks paints a picture of an American public that is over it. People didn’t like the war to begin with, they don’t think it will result in much positive, and they don’t seem to expect significant concessions — or, at least, concessions that were at all worthwhile.
In short, there’s not a lot of faith that Trump has a good way out of this war.
The Memorial Day weekend offers some insight on that perspective. There were some of the most significant signs to date of actual progress on a deal to end the war. But as the details leaked out, it became clear they were complete non-starters for many, more-hawkish Republicans. Some of those Republicans even cautioned the deal could leave Iran stronger than before the war.
And if Iran sticks to its hard line, it’s not clear what deal might allow Trump to both save face and end the war before it becomes even more of a problem for the GOP.
Multiple polls suggest people just want it to be over.
A Fox News poll last week showed just 39% of registered voters wanted US military operations to last “as long as it takes to achieve US objectives,” compared to 61% who instead preferred a “limited timeframe.”
Similarly, a New York Times-Siena College poll showed 52% of registered voters said the United States should end military operations even if it can’t reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear program.
Just 37% wanted to resume military operations if the countries can’t come to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
And that latter poll and other data reinforce that Americans aren’t exactly optimistic about an acceptable deal. Instead, it seems they are liable to look at anything that is produced skeptically.
The Times-Siena poll said just 22% thought the war would be “very successful” at eliminating Iran’s nuclear program — a program which, it bears re-emphasizing, the Trump administration has already claimed was “obliterated” last summer.
(Another 18% thought it would be “somewhat successful,” while 50% expected it to be unsuccessful.)
Likewise, 65% of Americans were “not so confident” or “not at all confident” that a deal to end the war would stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons (which has been Trump’s repeated red line), per a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
And nearly two-thirds were only “somewhat” confident, or less, that the administration would accomplish its goals in Iran, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.
Even if a deal is cut that includes reasonably favorable terms for the United States, that doesn’t mean Americans will view them as being worth it.
Registered voters said 55%-21% that the war will not be worth the costs, according to the Times-Siena poll.
Polls have also routinely illustrated that Americans think the war will be counterproductive on several fronts. The Post-ABC poll showed Americans said:
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61%-11% that the war has increased the risk of terrorism against Americans
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56%-12% that it has risked weakening US relationships
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49%-21% that stability in the Middle East will get worse
Even if Trump does defy the odds and manages to get a favorable deal for the US, he has another critical problem: Americans no longer trust him on this issue.
The most recent CNN poll, for example, shows just 20% of Americans have a “great deal” of faith in Trump to make good decisions about Iran. About three times as many — 59% — have “not much” or no faith at all.
Trump has already walked away from many of his more absolutist demands. He used to say he would only accept “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” for example. At other points, he’s said that his main goals were to end Iran’s nuclear program altogether and make it so Iran can’t fund proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Based on the latest negotiating terms, those goals seem to be getting watered down.
Trump seems to have made two critical errors at the outset: He didn’t have a clear, achievable plan for how to bring the war to the end, and he didn’t sufficiently sell the war to the American people. Instead, he set the bar for success so high that he’ll struggle to clear it — shy of restarting large-scale hostilities and prolonging the war, at least — and told voters after he launched attacks that it would be worth the pain.
Clearly, Americans don’t agree. And while getting out now is possibly better politically than letting things drag on, it might just be the least terrible option.
