Dollar Index Completes Double Bottom, Targets 100.59 as Markets Look Beyond Fed’s 4.1% 2027 Median

Dollar Index Completes Double Bottom, Targets 100.59 as Markets Look Beyond Fed’s 4.1% 2027 Median

TL;DR: The Dollar Index confirmed a double-bottom reversal after Wednesday’s 25bp hike, with the 2-year Treasury yield and a weaker Dow reinforcing the signal that markets are pricing roughly 100bp of tightening—well beyond the Fed’s own 4.1% median through 2027. The clearest verdict on the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since July 2023 came from…

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Fed Review: First Hike from Fed and Two More to Come

Fed Review: First Hike from Fed and Two More to Come

The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%. All members voted in favour. This was more hawkish than we expected, as we saw a risk that 2-3 members would favour unchanged rates. Warsh repeatedly highlighted the economy’s and labour market’s resilience, allowing the Fed to focus on bringing inflation back to target. We think the…

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US Yields Have Voted. Will the Fed Unlock the Dollar?

US Yields Have Voted. Will the Fed Unlock the Dollar?

TL;DR: The US two-year yield has already broken out toward a broader Fed tightening path, but the Dollar hasn’t followed — this week’s FOMC decision and Summary of Economic Projections will determine whether the Fed validates enough of that path to finally close the gap. The Yield–Dollar Divergence One market has already voted for a…

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USD/CAD Weekly Outlook - ActionForex

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – ActionForex

USD/CAD stayed in range trading above 1.3730 short term bottom last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 1.3938 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.3730 will resume the fall from 1.4247 to retest 1.3480 low. However, firm break of 1.3938 will bring stronger rebound back towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4247…

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook - ActionForex

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – ActionForex

GBP/USD stayed in range trading above 1.3473 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3484) will indicate that whole rebound from 1.3139 has completed. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3272 support first. On the upside, break of…

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