Arsenal took another step towards the Premier League title via a combination of winning methods old and new: 1–0 and set-pieces.
Kai Havertz’s header proved the difference on Monday night against the relegated Burnley, who fought admirably in north London but ultimately didn’t have the quality to seriously trouble a mightily stern defense, whose stubbornness is catapulting the Gunners to their first crowning glory in 22 years.
Arsenal have responded superbly from their supposedly fatal defeat at the Etihad Stadium last month, even if their streak of wins has been fraught with tension. The Gunners have struggled to blow away opponents, Fulham notwithstanding, but their unwillingness to wilt at a critical juncture means they remain in control of their own fate heading into the final day.
Manchester City will hope to take it to May 24, but the domestic cup double winners have one last tricky away day to navigate before Sunday’s shootout.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to shape up heading into the final moments of the 2025–26 season.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
|
Predicted Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
82 |
84.18 |
86.44% |
|
2. |
Man City |
77 |
81.15 |
13.56% |
Opta were certainly bullish about Arsenal against Burnley on Monday night, with their Predictor giving the Gunners an 87.8% chance of winning their penultimate game of the season—the second-highest likelihood of victory, per Opta, over the past five Premier League seasons.
Thus, Arsenal’s title chances didn’t significantly increase after their slender 1–0 win. The Gunners remain heavy favorites, given that they may not need to play again to seal the title. Opta gives them a 86.44% chance of ending their title drought this week.
However, Manchester City aren’t completely dead yet, and it’ll be interesting to see how they react to the seismic news of Pep Guardiola’s impending departure after a decade of dominance. The Spaniard is aiming to avoid back-to-back seasons without winning the league title for the first time in his managerial career, but the odds are against his team after they drew at Everton two weeks ago.
They’re five points back with two fixtures left. Opta rates their chances of reclaiming the title at 13.56%, but the fact Arsenal didn’t blow Burnley away on Monday does work in their favor. City could win the Premier League on goal difference—if they win their remaining two games, and Arsenal draw on the final day.
Arsenal, Man City Remaining Fixtures
|
Arsenal |
Man City |
|---|---|
|
— |
Bournemouth (A)—May 19 |
|
Crystal Palace (A)—May 24 |
Aston Villa (H)—May 24 |
Arsenal’s home slate is done, and all that remains is a trip to Crystal Palace on the final day. The Eagles may be focusing on the Conference League final, but Oliver Glasner has all the makings of a party pooper. Given how the Gunners performed against West Ham United and Burnley, winning at Selhurst Park is not a foregone conclusion.
However, the title favorites may not need to win in south London.
Man City must claim six points from their remaining two games to stay in contention, and they’re travelling to the red-hot Bournemouth on Tuesday night. The Cherries are 16 games unbeaten and are chasing Champions League soccer. Anything but a victory for the Cityzens will crown Arsenal champions.
Take it to the final day, and they may well fancy their chances of a late usurpation. Aston Villa visit the Etihad with a Europa League final hangover, having already secured a top-five finish. Unai Emery won’t fancy doing his former club any favors either.
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