TOKYO – It was a summit that emphasized stability rather than confrontation.
First, President Donald Trump needed to demonstrate that the status of the United States as a major power had not been impaired despite the Iran situation. Chinese President Xi Jinping also faces pressure to continue stabilizing relations with the United States as dark clouds hang over the outlook for the global economy.
There is no denying that the Iran situation cast a shadow over everything.
As for the outcome of the talks, the overall impression is that while optics were emphasized, the substance appeared largely limited to reaffirming the status quo.
On the Iran situation, the interests of both the United States and China have aligned on the need to bring the war to an early end. On the other hand, China’s influence over Iran is limited, making it doubtful that the latest talks will immediately lead to a settlement.
Regarding Taiwan, the Chinese side highlighted that Xi issued a warning, but Chinese leaders raising the Taiwan issue is something of a ritual, and so far there is no sign that Trump has changed existing policy.
It remains necessary to continue closely following developments in U.S. policy toward Taiwan. In this context, Trump’s characterization of the arms sales to Taiwan as a “bargaining chip” is troubling.
On trade, there is also basic agreement on continuing the “political truce” agreed at the summit in Busan, South Korea, last fall. But even after the Supreme Court ruled that “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal, the Trump administration has shown its intention to pursue trade policy using tariffs as leverage. Thus, the sources of friction have not disappeared.
Additionally, the United States has not reached a consensus on how to manage economic cooperation with China, including the export of advanced semiconductors to China and the acceptance of Chinese investment in the United States. Regardless of the outcome of the latest talks, more twists and turns are expected.
The impact on Japan-China relations is expected to be limited, and Japan should welcome the fact that both the United States and China are seeking stability.
It is concerning that while the United States is focused on short-term trade issues, China is pursuing a more strategic, long-term approach. Consequently, important strategic issues, such as China’s nuclear buildup, seem to have been overlooked.
This time, the Chinese side described U.S.-China relations as a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.” Along with Xi’s remark during the talks that the two countries should avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” it seems that China may now be seeking a relationship on equal or superior footing with the United States.
The “Thucydides Trap” refers to the danger of conflict arising when an established hegemonic power fears the rise of an emerging power.
If China demands that the United States calmly accept its own decline as the hegemonic power, that would be a sign of great confidence. Whether or not that reflects reality is debatable, but China’s holding of such a view warrants close attention.
In any case, the latest talks should be seen as a prelude to a series of summits scheduled for later this year. The Japanese government should use every opportunity going forward to deepen communication with the United States on policy toward China.
(Koji Tomita was born in Kobe in 1957 and is originally from Fukuoka. A graduate of the University of Tokyo, he served as director general of the Foreign Ministry’s North American Affairs Bureau, as ambassador to Israel, South Korea and the United States, before retiring in 2023. His major works include “Margaret Thatcher.”)
