SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI Won’t Be Added to the S&P 500 in 2026. Here’s What Investors Can Do About It.
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SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI Won’t Be Added to the S&P 500 in 2026. Here’s What Investors Can Do About It.
011 mins
S&P Dow Jones Indices dropped a bombshell on June 4, rejecting its earlier proposal to fast-track the inclusion of megacap companies in the S&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC).
Here’s how the news will directly impact high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and what you can do about it if you want exposure to these companies through an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
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IPOs on an unprecedented scale
On April 30, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it was considering a shorter IPO seasoning period to fast-track the inclusion of megacap companies. It defines megacap companies as being among the 100 largest companies in the S&P 500 Total Market Index — or at least $157 billion in market cap, based on recent prices. The seasoning period is when companies prove themselves on the public stage through accurate financial filings, governance, and maintaining a certain valuation.
SpaceX is raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation — which would easily put it among the 10 largest S&P 500 components. On May 28, Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation. On March 31, OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation.
The largest IPO in history came in 2019, when Saudi Arabian Oil raised $25.6 billion at a valuation of $1.7 trillion. But Saudi Arabian Oil isn’t a U.S. company, and it’s not part of the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC).
The U.S. market has simply never experienced IPOs at the scale of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — let alone three in less than a year.
SpaceX’s impact on the Nasdaq and major ETFs
Fast-track entry was meant to give index fund investors exposure to newly public companies, rather than waiting for them to become even more valuable, and risk investors missing out on gains. But S&P Dow Jones Indices’ June 4 press release stated that exceptions to its financial viability, seasoning, and investable weight factor requirements won’t be granted solely on the basis of market capitalization. In other words, a company can’t raise money through multiple funding rounds in the private markets and then muscle its way into the S&P 500. It must still undergo a minimum seasoning period of 12 months.
However, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may still gain fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, which is the 100 largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on the Nasdaq exchange. On May 8, Nasdaq published a methodology update proposing to weight IPO companies that meet certain criteria based on a multiple of their float, which is the shares available for trading by the public. Nasdaq is considering a range of three to five times the float, which would be $225 billion to $375 billion for SpaceX. That weighting would make SpaceX a large holding in the Nasdaq-100, but nowhere near its market-cap weighting.
If the Nasdaq-100 maintains its fast-track entry criteria, Nasdaq-100 funds like the Invesco QQQ Trust(NASDAQ: QQQ) would offer a way for investors to gain exposure to high-profile IPOs through an ETF wrapper. In its Form S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX explicitly states its intent to be listed on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker symbol SPCX.
An alternative option to the Invesco QQQ Trust is to invest in low-cost ETFs whose benchmarks aren’t the S&P 500. For example, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(NYSEMKT: VOO) uses the S&P 500 index as a benchmark, so it won’t be buying SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI until they are officially part of the index. Whereas the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF(NYSEMKT: VTI) uses the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Total Market Index and the Vanguard Growth ETF(NYSEMKT: VUG) uses the CRSP U.S. Large Cap Growth Index as its benchmark. Since these ETFs aren’t tied to an index, they will likely purchase SpaceX shortly after its IPO, weighting it based on a multiple of its float rather than market cap.
Positioning your portfolio for the megacap IPO era
Normally, when a company goes public, it’s relatively easy for investors to ignore it if they aren’t interested in buying the stock. But SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are so massive that they are challenging index and ETF methodology.
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ June 4 press release shows that the S&P 500 will be going in a different direction than the Nasdaq, with S&P 500 index investors getting zero exposure to the blockbuster IPOs until at least June 2027. However, if SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI were to at least maintain their respective valuations of $1.77 trillion, $965 billion, and $852 billion, they would make up a combined $3.59 trillion, which is more than Microsoft and behind Nvidia, Alphabet, and Apple. So even if these companies aren’t added to the S&P 500 right away, they could heavily disrupt the index soon.
Investors looking to quickly own these newly public companies through ETFs should consider ETFs with benchmarks that aren’t the S&P 500, while folks looking to avoid these IPOs may want to buy ETFs whose criteria wouldn’t even consider them in the first place — such as the Vanguard Value ETF or the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF.
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Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, Vanguard Growth ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Value ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
