Smart Investor: Recession Risks Rising, Desert Island Small Cap Picks, and IPOs Pop

Smart Investor: Recession Risks Rising, Desert Island Small Cap Picks, and IPOs Pop

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This week’s highlights:

To judge from the stock market, all is well. Equities once again pushed to new highs, and the Morningstar US Market Index is up some 14% in 2025—a whopping 34% from its April low. This past week, the market gained 1.5%, with tech stocks moving back into the lead.

One reflection of strong demand for stocks is the hot market for IPOs. This week saw several IPOs with big first-day pops, including a pair of crypto-related stocks and buy now, pay later leader Klarna. While there may be hints of froth in the IPO market, Morningstar analyst Niklas Kammer sees reason for investors to take a close look at Klarna.

However, when you look at the economy, things don’t look so rosy. On the inflation front, we have more confirmation that President Donald Trump’s trade wars are making life more expensive for Americans. The August Consumer Price Index report showed inflation clocking in at a 2.9% rate, well above the Federal Reserve’s target. You can check out Morningstar’s take on what the CPI report had to say here.

Not only is inflation stubbornly high, but the economy itself is looking wobbly. In the wake of the weak August jobs report, the word “recession” is beginning to float around once again. How likely is a recession? Sarah Hansen talked to some top economists to get their take on the outlook for the economy.

Lastly, Leslie Norton has a terrific Q&A with a small-stock manager who has been running money for four decades. He talks about his hunt for “Desert Island” stocks and offers up three of his current favorites. It’s a great read.

As always, be sure to visit our Markets page for our latest coverage and live stock market updates along with our full weekly calendar of key upcoming data and events.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article.

Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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