Bullish view
Bearish view
The AUD/USD exchange rate wavered on Tuesday morning as traders waited for the important macro numbers from the United States. It dropped to 1.3630, a few points below this month’s high of 1.3675.
US Consumer Confidence and Inflation Data
The AUD/USD pair wavered as the US dollar staged a mild recovery following last week’s retreat. The DXY Index, which weighs the US dollar against a basket of currencies, rose for the third consecutive day, reaching a high of 99.03, up modestly from this month’s low of 98.56.
The pair will have some more volatility later today as the US publishes key macro numbers. A crucial one will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report, which will show the state of the American consumer. Economists expect the data to show that consumers dropped from 90.8 in July to 90.3 in August.
A falling consumer confidence would have an impact on the US economy since they are the biggest component of the GDP.
The US will also publish the latest building permits and the new home sales report. Economists expect this data to show that permits rose 1.443 million, while new home sales rose 620k. These numbers come a day before the US releases the latest PCE and GDP numbers.
The most important drivers for the pair will come from the US, where Kevin Warsh and Michele Bullock at the Jackson Hole Symposium. These statements will likely provide more information on the state of the economy and what to expect later this year. Economists expect the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged this year, while odds of a Fed hike have jumped to 55%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair peaked at 0.7180 last week and then pulled back to a low of 0.7140. It has moved below the upper side of the ascending channel that has been forming since July 31st.
The pair has remained above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA). At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from a high of 72 to the current 57, its lowest level since August 20.
Therefore, the pair may rebound further in the coming days. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be last week’s high of 0.7180. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to 0.7250.
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Crispus Nyaga is a Technical Analyst at DailyForex with more than eight years of experience as a financial analyst, coach, and trader. He specializes in technical analysis of major currency pairs and cryptocurrencies, using chart patterns, trend structure, and key indicators to frame trading scenarios for Forex and digital asset markets. Crispus has worked with well-known brokers including ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFX, and his market commentary has been published widely on platforms such as Seeking Alpha, InvestingCube, Capital.com, and Invezz.
As seen on: SeekingAlpha, Macrostreet.com, Invezz.com, Forbes, Investing.com, Marketwatch, Crypto.news
