Costa Rica’s green coffee production is forecast to rise 3.5% to 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, though a strong local currency, lower coffee prices and higher production costs are expected to limit gains among farmers, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.
The report forecasts exports rising 3.9% to 1.06 million 60-kilogram bags, supported by the higher production. Domestic consumption is expected to remain flat at 320,000 60-kilogram bags as high prices and slow population growth limit demand.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Gains Face Limits
The 2026/27 forecast would put Costa Rican production above the 1.16 million bags estimated for 2025/26, though still below the 1.315 million bags estimated for 2024/25. Costa Rica remains focused almost entirely on arabica production.
FAS said the 2026/27 crop is expected to benefit from the high year in the country’s biennial production cycle. Yet several factors are expected to keep growth modest, including exchange rate pressure, higher fertilizer and fuel costs, lower international prices and the possible effects of El Niño.
The Costa Rican coffee institute ICAFE said the strength of the Costa Rican colón remains the sector’s biggest concern. The colón has appreciated roughly 35% since mid-2022, reducing local-currency returns for an export-oriented sector even when dollar-denominated coffee prices are relatively high. The report also says the stronger colón has reduced revenues to growers by nearly 30% since market year 2021/22, when the exchange rate reached a peak.
Prices Fall as Colón Stays Strong
According to ICAFE, coffee prices fell from $574 per 60-kilogram bag in October 2025 to $378 in April 2026, creating expectations of lower future income.
FAS said the average export price for 2025/26 coffee was up 10.5% through April 2026, reaching $449.70 per bag. Yet the average exchange rate moved from 504.76 colones per U.S. dollar to 459.65, resulting in a 9% reduction in local-currency revenue.
The Number of Farmers is Declining
Coffee-planted area is forecast to hold at about 83,000 hectares in 2026/27, while harvested area is forecast at 79,000 hectares. The latest available area survey showed national planted area fell 11.9% between 2018 and 2022, with declines in most regions outside Los Santos.
ICAFE said Costa Rica had 24,653 coffee growers in 2024/25, down from 25,549 the year before and 48% below the level from a decade earlier. Long periods of low coffee prices, aging farmers and high land prices near urban areas have contributed to the decline.
Weather and Labor Add Uncertainty
The Costa Rican National Meteorological Institute (IMN) said El Niño will most likely affect Costa Rica during the second half of 2026, potentially reducing rainfall by 10% to 30% in some areas. FAS said the timing of the weather pattern will determine effects on coffee production.
Labor remains another challenge. The report said Panamanian Ngäbe-Buglé workers now harvest most of Costa Rica’s coffee crop, while slow immigration processes are creating uncertainty for growers.
Exports Rise, Consumption Holds Flat
Exports are forecast at 1.06 million bags in 2026/27, including 1.05 million bags of green coffee and 10,000 bags of roasted coffee. The United States remains Costa Rica’s top green coffee export market, accounting for 39.6% of green coffee exports in 2024/25, followed by the European Union as the other major destination.
Domestic consumption is forecast to remain at 320,000 bags, with high retail prices limiting growth. Meanwhile, the Costa Rican coffee sector is working to strengthen traceability systems for compliance with European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requirements.
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