Welcome to week 34 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where we have now entered squeaky-bum time.
Are you aware of that expression? Thanks to Sir Alex Ferguson — and with a little help from a small group of journalists, which included my now colleague Daniel Taylor and me — it has been listed in the Oxford English Dictionary, meaning “a particularly tense period of time, especially leading up to the climax of a competition or event”.
It dates back to March 2003, when Danny and I were among the travelling press pack for Manchester United’s Champions League game away to Deportivo La Coruna of Spain.
The custom in those days — very different to now — was that Ferguson, providing nothing had upset him too much in the newspapers he’d read during the outbound flight, would do a brief huddle interview with journalists at the airport’s luggage carousel after we landed.
On this particular occasion, it was the last game of the old second group stage, United were already through to the quarter-finals and it is fair to say their manager’s mind was focused less on Deportivo (who would win the game 2-0) and more on Arsenal, with whom they were locked in a fierce battle for the Premier League title.
That race was into its final straight and Ferguson, when asked about the growing nerves and tension, growled in his Glaswegian accent, “It’s getting tickly now. Squeaky-bum time, I call it.”
At least, some of us thought that was what he said. But there were six or seven of us in that huddle and at least two felt he’d said, “Squeeze-your-bum time”. It was impossible to get clarification from Ferguson before our various papers’ print deadlines, so we held a vote and “Squeaky-bum time” prevailed.
The Manchester City and Arsenal players must know the feeling now only goals-scored separates them in this season’s scrap to be Premier League champions.
And it is also getting anxious in our predictions challenge, where the title also threatens to go right to the wire.
Every week since the season began in August, four of us — a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and me — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.
We’re also awarding a bonus point for any “unique” prediction; so for example, if I am the only one to predict that Arsenal draw 4-4 with Newcastle United on Saturday, for old times’ sake, and I am correct, I will get four points rather than three.
As explained earlier in the week, we’re ignoring what the official Premier League website says and treating this weekend’s seven games as a continuation of week 34, given that the three midweek matches had been brought forward a few days due to three of the clubs involved playing in the FA Cup semi-finals tomorrow and Sunday.
To my ongoing dismay, the subscribers are top of our league table, followed by boy wonder Wilfred and then me, with the dismal algorithm cut adrift at the bottom.
Wilfred’s record-breaking score last weekend set things up for a two-horse race, but those games on Tuesday and Wednesday saw Andrew extend the readers’ lead from eight points to nine.
The “split” matchweek means Andrew has another seven games to predict this weekend — although I suspect that, as a Leeds fan, he will be rather more interested in their FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea at Wembley on Sunday.
Good luck, Andrew.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday, 3pm UK/10am ET
Andrew says: “While this looks like Spurs’ easiest remaining fixture, in Wolves’ last three league home games, they took points off Arsenal, Villa and Liverpool, scoring two each time. So I’m going for a repeat of the Brighton result, in a game that next season will have very different line-ups.”
Wolves 2-2 Tottenham
Oli says: “If there is a route to survival for Tottenham, then it simply has to start with victory on Saturday. It’s not a must-win in mathematical terms, but for a team have have gone 15 Premier League games without a win, the trip to Wolves (already relegated) looks like their best hope of a kind of the type of result that would offer them any kind of springboard for the final four games. I feel their predicament is so stark that they could very feasibly win at Molineux and still go down. If not on Saturday, then I really don’t know where a win is coming from.”
Wolves 1-2 Tottenham
Roberto De Zerbi will be hoping to spark a revival at Spurs (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Exciting times for Forest, through to a Europa League semi-final. Anxious times for Forest, only five points above the relegation trapdoor. If we assume Tottenham will actually win a game or two and make a fight of it (stop laughing), then Forest aren’t safe yet. If they hoped for a gentle fixture in the lead-up to next Thursday’s Europa first leg at home to Aston Villa, then Sunderland away is the opposite. Forest will be forced to scrap for everything. But scrap they probably will.
Sunderland 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Barring something dramatic, Villa look assured of Champions League qualification via a top-five Premier League finish, so — unlike his Forest counterpart Vitor Pereira — Unai Emery has the luxury of being able to rest players before next Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg. But with a five-day gap, I would expect to go strong on Saturday. Fulham will still be in the mix for European qualification if they can string a few wins together, but they don’t seem to be able to sustain their momentum.
Fulham 1-1 Aston Villa
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Palace are unbeaten on their past four visits to Anfield — two wins, two draws — but their UEFA Conference League semi-final first leg away to Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday is looming, so this might be a good time to play them. The pressure on Liverpool has eased considerably after back-to-back Premier League wins at home to Fulham and away to Everton. They could do with another to build confidence ahead of next Sunday’s trip to Manchester United.
Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace
West Ham vs Everton
A West Ham-supporting colleague was not impressed by my suggestion that their draw at Crystal Palace on Monday represented a “good point”. He feels they have given Tottenham a lifeline in the relegation battle. He might well be right, but it has maintained that feeling of a West Ham team who have become hard to beat. They lost seven of their first nine Premier League matches this season, but they have only lost three of the past 12. Under Nuno, they are more organised with and without the ball and, with winter-window Chelsea loanee Axel Disasi anchoring their defence, they no longer look like conceding every time the opposition have a corner. They do need another win or two, though. I’m not sure a draw here would be such a “good point”.
West Ham 1-1 Everton
Arsenal vs Newcastle
“It’s not done,” Declan Rice said at the final whistle on Sunday — and it most certainly isn’t. The difficulty for Arsenal now is that, from what looked like such a commanding position, they now have little or no margin for error. In fact, they could win their five remaining games and still see Manchester City pip them to the title on goal difference. Perhaps that scenario will suit Rice and his team-mates more than the “This must not slip” challenge of the past few months, which seemed to inhibit rather than inspire them. On paper, this is a real test. But the way Newcastle have been playing, it looks like an ideal bounce-back opportunity for Arsenal.
Arsenal 3-0 Newcastle
Manchester United vs Brentford
I spent some time at Brentford’s training ground on Thursday for a couple of articles we’ll be running next week. What they have done — the way they have climbed up through the divisions (they were in League Two as recently as 2009) and not just survived in the Premier League but put themselves on course for a third top-half finish in four seasons — is so impressive, and it was great to get more insight from some of those involved. I’ve been as guilty of underestimating them as anyone this season and I really want to put that right. But maybe not for this game.
Manchester United 2-1 Brentford
