Welcome to week 23 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where you’ll be delighted to learn that the subscribers are back in the game.
For that, you have Hannah, a Newcastle supporter from Bristol, to thank. Hannah got 14 points (three correct scores, one correct result, and a whole lot of bonus points) in a week when the rest of us, particularly six-year-old Wilfred and I, really struggled.
“It was great to give the subscribers a much-needed boost,” Hannah told us. “There’s no shame in being bested by Wilf, but I would like to think that we subscribers can at least beat the AI in the final standings.”
Absolutely, Hannah. That is the important thing for everyone to remember here. As much as you might all enjoy seeing a sports journalist shown up — especially when he has demonstrated a clear and calculated agenda against your team — the real enemy here is the dreaded algorithm. If the subscribers and young Wilfred are the good guys here, then I would like to think I am certainly the lesser of the two evils.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — a guest subscriber, Wilfred, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League match scores.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so all four of Hannah’s predictions came with a bonus because nobody else matched them.
Hannah’s 14 points equals the record for a single matchweek this season — held jointly not just by the algorithm and me, but by Bournemouth fan Chris from Kentucky in the United States. But it is particularly impressive given she won them in a week where the other two human participants flopped.
As poor as Liverpool have been over the past few months, predicting them to be held 1-1 at home by second-bottom Burnley was an inspired call and Lukas Nmecha’s stoppage-time winner for Leeds against Fulham was a bold shout that earned another four points on the subscribers’ behalf — which was galling for me as I had gone for the 0-0 draw there.
“It was definitely a case of head over heart,” Hannah said. “At this congested point in the season, with injuries and managerial casualties piling up, I looked for the teams with both stability and something to fight for. That said, I don’t think anyone saw the Manchester derby result coming.”
No. None of us did. In fact, I only saw one of last weekend’s 10 results coming. There are so many unpredictable results at the moment.
Poor Wilfred had rotten luck, left to count the cost of three stoppage-time goals, which denied him a correct scoreline for Tottenham vs West Ham and correct results at Leeds and Brighton (against Bournemouth). It was the type of weekend that would leave many a grown man — I’m thinking mostly of football managers here — complaining of a conspiracy. Young Wilfred, it seems, is more mature than that.
All of which leaves us with something that looks a lot less like a two-horse race than it did a few weeks ago. I’m still leading, but I’m now only 12 points clear of the subscribers. Could we yet have a four-way fight for the title?
There is, therefore, a big responsibility on the shoulders of this week’s guest subscriber, Nikhil, a 28-year-old Tottenham fan from Oxfordshire. This is an ideal time for me to say something about how Spurs usually crack under pressure, but after my performances here over the past few weeks, I’m in no position to mock. Good luck, Nikhil.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Arsenal vs Manchester United, Sunday, 4.30pm UK/11.30am ET
Nikhil says: “As a Spurs fan, our misery this season has been compounded by Arsenal looking imperious. Despite recent stumbles in the league, I think they’re too good at home not to beat a rejuvenated, yet still flawed, United. My heart says they’ll draw, but my head can only see one result.”
Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United
Oli says: Manchester United have taken a solitary point from their past six meetings with Arsenal, but the games have usually been tight. And the way they performed against Manchester City last Saturday in Michael Carrick’s first game in interim charge, defending in a very compact shape and counter-attacking aggressively, suggested this could be another close one. It promises to be another of those afternoons when Arsenal fans’ nerves are shredded, but it might — just might — end with their team taking another significant step towards the title.
Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United
Oli’s other predictions
West Ham vs Sunderland
Oli says: Since the start of last season, West Ham have played 30 home games in the Premier League. They have won just seven of them, drawn another six, and lost 17. They are one of the few top-flight teams who look better away from home, which is clearly linked to the atmosphere at the London Stadium; there is a vicious circle, where their fans are in a perpetual state of misery, which seems to impact on the players, which seems to heighten that sense of misery in the stands, which… you get the picture. If they are to give themselves any hope of avoiding relegation over the next four months, they have to start winning home games. And I’m not sure I can see that happening against a Sunderland team who have shown far more mettle than them this season.
West Ham 1-1 Sunderland
Fulham vs Brighton
Watching Brighton toil to a 1-1 home draw with Bournemouth on Monday, I found myself wondering which of their young players might be next to attract covetous glances from the bigger, wealthier clubs. Other than Carlos Baleba, who came on in the second half after returning from Africa Cup of Nations duty with Cameroon, the obvious one is Yankuba Minteh. But even those two aren’t performing for Brighton at the level the likes of Moises Caicedo, Alexis Mac Allister, Ben White, Marc Cucurella and Leandro Trossard were when they were sold on. Brighton have set standards recruitment-wise, but it’s so hard to keep doing that when other clubs are taking note and trying to buy in those same markets. They, like Fulham, aren’t far off the top four, but the momentum and progressive feel of previous seasons isn’t easy to detect at the moment.
Fulham 0-0 Brighton
Burnley vs Tottenham
In my first draft of these predictions, at the start of the week, I had this down as a Burnley win. I changed my mind after watching Tottenham beat visitors Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday. It was a much improved performance — striker Dominic Solanke’s return from injury for his first start of the season certainly helped — and they tend to play better away from home anyway. They’ve got a very tough run of games coming up, but maybe Thomas Frank will make it into February as Spurs head coach after all.
Burnley 1-2 Tottenham
Manchester City vs Wolves
Manchester City have won just two of their past seven games in all competitions — and one of the two was against Exeter City, who are 13th in third-tier League One. Their Champions League defeat by Norwegian club Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday was horrendous. Erling Haaland has scored once in eight appearances — and that was a penalty. And with the sudden threat of a Champions League play-off next month to contend with, as well as commitments in the two domestic cups, an injury-ravaged squad could be stretched further. None of this comes close to bottom-of-the-table Wolves’ difficulties, of course, but it was enough to make me give serious consideration to the possibility of Rob Edwards and his team getting a result at the Etihad. Unlikely, but not out of the question, given both these sides’ performances in recent weeks.
Manchester City 3-1 Wolves
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
The really disconcerting thing for Arne Slot and Liverpool in this turbulent season is that there are almost certainly choppier waters ahead. Their current run of 13 games unbeaten in all competitions has steadied the ship, with a few impressive wins on the road in there, but a succession of poor performances at Anfield have left a palpable sense of anxiety, which is evident on the pitch at times — and certainly among the fanbase. So, after too many draws in recent weeks, what happens when (not if) they lose a few games again? This will not be easy against a Bournemouth team playing far better than a record of one win in 13 Premier League outings suggests.
Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
My thoughts on Crystal Palace’s difficulties — selling Eberechi Eze, selling Marc Guehi, in danger of losing Jean-Philippe Mateta to a further transfer, and with manager Oliver Glasner also saying he will step down in the summer — have been articulated perfectly by my colleague Nick Miller here. It is, as Nick says, a familiar but brutal reminder of football’s realities, where a glass ceiling means clubs of a certain size have little hope of defying expectations. And if they manage to do so, it won’t be for long. The wonderful thing for Palace is that their FA Cup final win last May brought them something tangible to show for their progress, as well as memories that will endure. Most clubs beyond the super-rich elite don’t even get that.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Chelsea
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
The loss of Boubacar Kamara to a knee injury is such a blow to Aston Villa. They have a range of midfield options, but Kamara’s rare blend of composure, energy and tenacity will be sorely missed, even with fellow midfielder Amadou Onana on the brink of a return. There could be a slight vulnerability about Unai Emery’s team at St James’ Park on Sunday, particularly after a long trip to Turkey to face Fenerbahce in the Europa League last night (Thursday). I’m going for a tight Newcastle win.
Newcastle 1-0 Aston Villa
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Who would have imagined back on the opening weekend of the season, when Forest were 3-0 up against Brentford at half-time, that by January a) the visitors’ rookie head coach Keith Andrews would still be in a job, b) the home side would be on their third manager of the season, c) Brentford would be seventh, three points off the top four, and d) Forest would be one place above the relegation places? Not me, that’s for certain. Forest have shored things up with four points from the past two games, including a draw with leaders Arsenal, but I’m not sure they’ll relish the unique type of chaos that Brentford can inflict.
Brentford 1-0 Nottingham Forest
Everton vs Leeds
Has Dominic Calvert-Lewin proved Everton wrong with his form for new club Leeds over the past couple of months? Possibly. But perhaps what he really needed was a change of scenery and a fresh start. And it’s not as if his previous employers, only four points off the top four, are struggling without him. The big question is whether Everton will invest big money in a centre-forward — more likely to happen in the summer than before this window closes on February 2 — or whether last July’s signing Thierno Barry, who is beginning to smooth down some of his rougher edges, can emerge as the answer. Either way, this should be a tight one.
Everton 1-1 Leeds
