A year ago, Canadians re-elected the Liberals to a fourth term. It looked counterintuitive, but the data was clear. Voters were not renewing their affection for a decade-old government. They were responding to uncertainty and choosing a different kind of leadership.
That distinction helps explain why Mark Carney’s government has maintained relatively strong approval. In its first year, net approval has stayed positive and fairly stable, resembling a new government more than one entering its eleventh year. By contrast, the Trudeau government also enjoyed strong approval early on, but its trajectory over time tells a more cautionary story.
By late 2017, Trudeau’s numbers had begun to soften. The decline was gradual at first (an ill-fated trip to India had a momentary hit on his reputation), moving from early highs to a more middling range. Then came the SNC-Lavalin controversy, and approval dropped sharply and never recovered.
Most Canadians were not following the legal arguments of the whole drama. What they reacted to was a perceived gap between Trudeau’s brand and his behaviour.
Trudeau had built his appeal on openness, transparency, and doing politics differently. The SNC-Lavalin controversy called that into question. It raised a simple but powerful doubt: is this actually different? Once that doubt took hold, approval eroded because the foundation of trust weakened.
That contrast with the Carney government is worth considering.
Carney’s brand is built on competence, stability, and reassurance. So far, that has proven resilient. Even amid elevated affordability concerns, global uncertainty and trade disruption, those attributes continue to anchor positive impressions.
But the lesson from Trudeau’s decline is clear: Approval does not collapse because of a single issue alone. It shifts when an event or a series of events challenges the core narrative voters believe about a government.
For Trudeau, the test became whether he represented real change from politics as usual.
For Carney, the test is whether he can be trusted to manage and protect people against uncertainty.
Right now, most Canadians believe he can. But that confidence is conditional. And as the Trudeau experience shows, once the link between brand and behaviour breaks, it is difficult to rebuild.
