In its latest quarterly gas report for Q2 2026, the agency said shipping disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz have effectively taken nearly 20% of global LNG supply off the market since early March, triggering a sharp spike in prices across Asia and Europe.
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Prices briefly hit their highest levels since January 2023, leading to a pullback in demand in key importing regions.
The disruption comes after a brief period of easing. During the 2025–26 winter, stronger LNG supply — especially from North America — had helped cool prices, with global LNG trade rising 12% year-on-year between October and February.
That trend reversed in March. Global LNG production fell 8% year-on-year, driven by a steep drop in exports from Qatar and the UAE, with supply chain disruptions spilling into April deliveries.
Demand has since softened. Europe’s gas consumption fell about 4% in March, supported by higher renewable generation, while several Asian countries have turned to fuel-switching and demand curbs to manage the supply crunch.
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The IEA said the impact will extend beyond the near term. Damage to liquefaction infrastructure in Qatar is expected to push back the next wave of global LNG supply by at least two years, potentially creating a cumulative shortfall of about 120 bcm between 2026 and 2030.
While new projects elsewhere may eventually plug the gap, the agency said the delays will keep LNG markets tight through 2026 and 2027, underscoring the need for sustained investment and diversified supply contracts.
