May 11, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – The latest Weekly Federal Tracker from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding an 11-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives but the Prime Minister’s approval rating has fallen to 58%.
If a federal election were held today among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals would receive 44% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33%, the NDP at 10%, and the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party, People’s Party, and Other parties each sit at 2%.
Among all voters, the Liberals stand at 37%, followed by the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 9%, the Bloc at 5%, and the Greens, PPC, and Other parties at 2% each. Sixteen per cent of voters remain undecided.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from April 27 to May 9, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing across landline and cellular phone networks. The sample includes a dedicated oversample of Quebec voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.51 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
“Another week, another double-digit Liberal lead. The topline has not moved much, but the underlying numbers are not completely static. The Liberals remain in a very strong position in Ontario, where they sit at 51% among decided and leaning voters, and they are further ahead in Atlantic Canada at 52%.”
“The Conservatives continue to show strength in parts of the West, leading in Manitoba/Saskatchewan and Alberta. That keeps them competitive regionally, but it is not enough to change the national picture. As long as the Liberals are around 50% in Ontario and comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have a very narrow path.”
“Carney’s approval has slipped, but it remains strong. Fifty-eight per cent approve of the job he is doing as Prime Minister, while 34% disapprove and 8% are unsure. A two-point drop is not nothing, but when your approval is still near 60%, you have room to absorb a little turbulence. That being said, we are seeing continued drops in his approval, week over week, and a steady rise in disapproval week over week. Ever since the Davos speech the Prime Minister has been in the 60’s and now he’s slipped to 58%.”
“Poilievre remains underwater. Thirty-six per cent have a favourable view of him, while 51% have an unfavourable view. That is a difficult number for an opposition leader trying to broaden the Conservative coalition beyond the party’s existing base.”
“Avi Lewis is becoming better known, but he is still largely undefined for many Canadians. Twenty-seven per cent have a favourable view of him, 22% have an unfavourable view, and 33% say they are not familiar with him. The NDP number has ticked up, but the party is still a long way from where it needs to be to seriously threaten the two larger parties.”
“The story this week is not dramatic movement. It is durability. The Liberals continue to hold a double-digit lead, Carney remains broadly approved of, and the Conservatives have yet to find the issue or message that changes the shape of the race.”
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.
