OBSERVERS HAVE repeatedly predicted the collapse of Israel’s government over the past two and a half years. Indeed, many have wished for it. In the end, two ultra-Orthodox parties in the ruling coalition have prompted the moment of its own demise. The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, is expected to vote on May 20th to dissolve itself. That would start the countdown to an election in September or October. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, may still try to stymie the vote. But at best he can buy his government a few more weeks. This Knesset’s term is about to expire; parliamentary elections must be held by October 27th at the latest.
Many Israelis believe the government’s subservience to religious interests has come at their own expense. (AP)
The immediate trigger is a demand by the ultra-Orthodox parties for a law exempting religious seminary students from compulsory military service. Mr Netanyahu was willing to pass it but failed to muster the necessary votes for a measure that is deeply unpopular with the public. Many Israelis believe the government’s subservience to religious interests has come at their own expense. The issue will be among the most prominent in the coming campaign.
It is remarkable that the government has lasted this long, nearly completing its four-year term—a rare feat in Israel. After Hamas’s assault launched from Gaza in October 2023, and Israel’s failure to anticipate it, many thought Mr Netanyahu’s coalition would fall. The prime minister, however, brazened it out. He blamed the armed forces and intelligence services and promised Israelis “total victory” in the wars that followed. Not only did he keep his coalition of hard-right and religious parties together, he persuaded others to join his government as Israel mobilised for war.
But victory has proven elusive. Israel controls a wasteland of rubble in just over half of Gaza; Hamas still rules the rest. Israel’s other campaigns over the past two years have also failed to bring decisive results. The Iranian regime, which Israel has attacked twice alongside America, is battered but defiant. In Lebanon Hizbullah, Iran’s proxy militia, continues to fight Israeli troops on the ground, despite losing most of its leadership to air strikes. Mr Netanyahu is still hoping Donald Trump will renew attacks on Iran. But few in Israel’s intelligence community believe the regime is on the verge of collapse. “It could still happen,” concedes one Israeli Iran-watcher. “But it is unlikely to be in time for the election.”
The shadow of October 7th and Israel’s many wars since then will loom over the election. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister who is leading a list of right-wing and centrist candidates, has promised that, should he form the next government, its first cabinet meeting would be dedicated to appointing a commission of inquiry into the failures that led to the massacre.
That does not, however, mean that this election campaign will be a national reckoning for the brutal conduct of the Gaza war. Over 70,000 people, mainly civilians, have been killed; Gaza’s population was forced to the brink of starvation. Yet most Israelis still believe the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran were justified as necessary responses to existential threats to the Jewish state. “We’re likely to lose the election because the wars took so long and failed to yield decisive results,” argues one parliamentarian from Likud, Mr Netanyahu’s party.
For the government’s opponents, this election is about much more than the wars. They have not forgotten that before October 7th, Mr Netanyahu’s coalition was trying to pass a controversial series of legal reforms that would significantly weaken the Supreme Court. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis repeatedly took to the streets to protest against what they saw as the erosion of Israel’s democratic foundations. They have watched the government lavish public money on ultra-Orthodox voters, despite their refusal to serve in the army and their limited economic participation.
Israel’s economy, buoyed by its tech sector, and especially by the strength of defence-tech companies, has proved remarkably resilient. The stock market and the shekel, the national currency, are both strong. Unemployment is low, partly because so many young Israelis have been drafted. Exports of natural gas from offshore fields in the Mediterranean are also helping.
But few Israelis are focused on that. Some worry that government spending is poorly controlled, while welfare channelled to the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox community is unsustainable. Others warn that Israel’s democracy is dysfunctional. In a recent survey a majority of centrist and left-wing voters said that losing this election to the Netanyahu camp would be “intolerable”. More Israelis may choose to leave. In 2024 nearly 83,000 emigrated, a record, and in 2025 almost 70,000 followed suit. That could be an early sign of a brain drain.
Most polls conducted over the past three years suggest that the parties in Mr Netanyahu’s current coalition will fail to win a majority. But even if the opposition does, they will struggle to forge an effective government. Mr Netanyahu’s opponents include right-wing and centrist parties who refuse to join a coalition that includes Arab-Israeli parties. The opposition lacks a clear leader. Mr Bennett has joined forces with Yair Lapid, a centrist former prime minister. But, despite much talk of emulating democratic parties that united in Hungary to topple Viktor Orban, the other opposition parties have yet to recognise Mr Bennett as their candidate for prime minister. The lack of unity probably helps explain why Likud remains the largest party in most polls.
Some are wondering whether, at 76, Mr Netanyahu, who is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, might at last call it a day. As well as struggling to keep his bloc together, he has been dealing with heart problems and is recovering from treatment for prostate cancer. Retirement would not only avoid the potential of a humiliating electoral defeat, it would allow him to accept a plea bargain and end his ongoing trial for bribery and fraud (charges he strenuously denies). But many believe he is incapable of giving up the fight. This is set to be his 12th election as leader of Likud. Over four decades in politics he has confounded the polls time and again. Another race may prove irresistible. So, for all the grave questions facing Israelis in this election, it will almost certainly become yet another referendum on Mr Netanyahu.
