In a market starved for economic data and concerned about the AI trade, the S & P 500 enters the third week of November just over 2% away from its record high close on Oct. 28. That’s not too bad, considering how awful November started. This week brings three big things to watch: the first data sets since the record-long government shutdown ended, minutes from the October meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, and the biggest earnings report of the season. 1. Economic data : The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced late last week that it will release the September employment report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The numbers were scheduled to be released on Oct. 3, but were delayed when the government shut down two days prior. The BLS also said it will release September real earnings on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Real earnings, which are the difference between the consumer price index and the average hourly earnings, could not be calculated for September because the wage part of the equation was delayed. The CPI for September, however, was released on Oct. 24. It was the only economic report released during the shutdown due to its role in calculating the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits. 2. Guessing game : The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its October meeting, which saw central bankers cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. As Jim Cramer said last week during our November Monthly Meeting for Club members, the guessing game about whether the Fed will deliver its third quarter-point rate cut of the year at its Dec. 9-10 meeting will intensify in the coming weeks. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that a December rate cut was not a certainty. The market had its own ideas, still thinking it was a lock. Recently, however, Fed officials have sounded apprehensive. And, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now sees only a 46% chance of a December cut. What’s changed? Some Fed officials are worried about acting before seeing the shutdown-delayed data. Jim said there should be no debate: The Fed should cut rates next month because the economy has slowed, and consumers have become increasingly concerned. 3. Earnings : It’s a big week for retailers, Nvidia, and three other Club names. Most of the S & P 500 companies have already reported their quarterly numbers. So far, 82% of them have reported a positive earnings-per-share (EPS) surprise, and 76% of them have reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet. For the third quarter, the blended year-over-year EPS growth rate for the S & P 500 is 13.1%. If that holds, it will mark the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Home Depot is first up this week, reporting earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday. Management’s thoughts on the interest rate environment for 2026 and its implications for new home construction (linked to mortgage rates) and home renovation activity (linked to shorter-term HELOC, or home equity line of credit, rates) will be important to investors. Additionally, on the cost side, any updates regarding tariffs will be key. TJX Companies is set to report on Wednesday morning. We continue to view TJX, the off-price retailer behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, as a winner going into the holiday season. Cracks in consumer buying power prompt an even greater focus on value, which is where TJX excels. With that in mind, we always want to know what management thinks about the availability of quality goods ahead of the holiday shopping season. Nvidia , the most important earnings report to the market, is set for release after Wednesday’s closing bell. While the Club will provide a more in-depth preview next week, the focus outside the reported numbers will be on the guidance – specifically, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comment that he has visibility into $500 billion in sales through the end of 2026. Remarks about the production ramp for Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin artificial intelligence chip will also be important. Palo Alto Networks is also expected to release its quarterly results on Wednesday evening. The company’s so-called platformization strategy — a focus on being the one-stop shop for all of a client’s cybersecurity needs — appears to be working, according to the latest analyst channel checks. In addition to the reported numbers, any comments relating to the government shutdown and whether there will be any longer-term implications beyond the current quarter will be at the forefront. Additionally, we are interested in hearing about its pending acquisition of identity security specialist CyberArk, whose shareholders voted to approve the sale last week. Week ahead Monday, Nov. 17 8:30 a.m. ET: Empire State index (November) Tuesday, Nov. 18 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial production and capacity utilization (October) Before the bell earnings: Home Depot (HD); Baidu (BIDU), PDD Holdings (PDD), Medtronic (MDT) Wednesday, Nov. 19 Before the bell: TJX Companies (TJX), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 2 p.m. ET: Minutes from October Fed meeting After the bell: Nvidia (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Thursday, Nov. 20 8:30 a.m. ET: Employment report (September) 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed index (November) 10 a.m. ET: Existing home sales (October) 10 a.m. ET: NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (November) Before the bell: Walmart (WMT), Bath & Body Works (BBWI) After the bell: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST), Gap (GPS) Friday, Nov. 21 8:30 a.m. ET: Real earnings (September) 9:45 a.m. ET: S & P Global PMIs (November) 10 a.m. ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (November final) Before the bell: BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, HD, TJX, PANW. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
