A series of appearances this past week saw Chinese President Xi Jinping all smiles alongside a variety of America’s rivals.
The events — a summit that was then followed by a military parade — have gotten plenty of notice. And they’ve clearly gotten under President Trump’s skin, with the president’s latest missive on Friday declaring that it “looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China.”
Later on Friday, Trump seemed to soften his view somewhat, saying that “India and the United States have a special relationship. There’s nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion,” during remarks from the Oval Office.
Economically speaking, the inclusion of India in the mix is the most significant development and comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to China for the first time in seven years to meet with President Xi as well as President Vladimir Putin of Russia at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual summit.
It was a significant move for India and comes after trade tensions with the US — and 50% topline tariffs imposed by Trump in part over India’s purchases of Russian oil — have pushed the nation to choose closer ties to Russia and China for now.
Joining forces? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, center, talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi jinping ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2025 on September 1. (SUO TAKEKUMA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) ·SUO TAKEKUMA via Getty Images
India has yet to go as far as it could in turning against the United States and the West. Experts have stressed that — President Trump’s comments notwithstanding — recent moves are not necessarily binding.
But they could be if tensions continue.
Trump’s moves are “forcing India to have to accommodate China” is how Lisa Curtis, the director of the Indo-Pacific program at the Center for a New American Security, puts it. How so? “The way it’s going to do it is on the economic front.” For example, more investments and business visas between the two countries.
But a photo op and some additional visas won’t quickly negate a longer history of tensions between China and India, Curtis and others note.
Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer added Friday in response to Trump’s comments that “the US-India relationship is deeply strained and this post won’t help. But India remains a geopolitical adversary of China across the region.”
Another point of tension with the US is a Quad summit — an alliance of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States — that is scheduled for later this year.
Trump had initially planned on attending but now no longer has plans to visit, according to a New York Times report on the souring of relations.
The focus on America’s increasingly rivals centered around these two events held this week in China.
First, there was the summit in Shanghai — with Modi in attendance.
That was followed by a military parade in Beijing to commemorate 80 years since the defeat of Japan in World War II. That second event featured Xi, Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un, but notably not Modi.
That’s significant, as the group at the parade is central in a loose anti-American alliance that has been closely monitored — especially as their ties have deepened during the war in Ukraine.
They even have a name: the “Axis of Upheaval.”
Axis in action: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un applaud from Tiananmen Gate during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 3. (Rao Aimin/Xinhua via AP) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
That term — coined by Lisa Curtis’s group — has generally been defined as the growing military-focused alliance between Russia, China, and North Korea, with Iran included as well.
As for India possibly joining, Curtis says that’s not in the offing.
“India is not flirting with the idea of joining the Axis of Upheaval,” she said. “It’s not as if, all of a sudden, India is best friends with China.”
India and China, she points out, almost went to war during a border crisis in 2020, and warmer relations in the last few weeks are perhaps better understood as an attempt to return to the previous norm before 2020.
Modi “is simply trying to diffuse tensions with China because he feels he can no longer rely on US support as he could previously.”
Either way, Trump’s flurry of commentary is at least a sign that the president is deeply engaged.
On the military parade in China — which occurred well into the evening in Washington, D.C. — Trump said this week, “I thought it was very, very impressive, but I understood the reason they were doing it and they were hoping I was watching.”
“And I was watching,” he said.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
