China’s exports have been keeping the global container market afloat despite its ongoing trade war with the U.S., said ocean carrier giant Maersk.
According to Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc, the sourcing superpower’s global export share has increased steadily to about 37 percent this year from 33 percent in 2023, even as its shipments to the U.S. have seen steady declines in recent months.
Clerc said container demand has shown a “remarkable resilience” in the wake of the trade tensions, with Maersk revising its global container market volume growth forecasts upwards for the second time since August. The container shipping giant now expects 4 percent growth in 2025, up from the prior range of 2 percent to 4 percent.
“China’s export growth into all regions of the world except for North America has not only been resilient, it has gathered pace,” said Clerc in a Thursday morning earnings call. “Given the widely available production capacity in China and the very competitive products that are being exported, we do not expect this trend of accelerated export growth from China to stop. The momentum is strong.”
Maersk’s own volume growth reflected the optimism exhibited by Clerc, with the carrier moving 7 percent more 40-foot equivalent units (FEUs) in the third quarter, or 3.4 million containers. The company said the growth was driven by Asian exports, with the strongest numbers coming out on the East-to-West trade lanes, where volume rose 9.6 percent to 1.6 million FEUs.
“The demand from China and the growth from China, at least so far, shows no sign of abating,” Clerc said. The country’s exports grew 8.3 percent in September despite shipments to the U.S. plummeting 27 percent. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union accelerated 15.6 percent and 14.1 percent respectively.
Not all ocean carriers have appeared to benefit equally. During the same quarter, Ocean Network Express (ONE) saw volumes increase just 1 percent.
According to Clerc, the company’s Gemini Cooperation vessel-sharing alliance with Hapag-Lloyd has allowed Maersk to transport more volumes using the same capacity, ultimately resulting in a $50 million cost benefit in the third quarter.
Maersk raised the lower end of its full-year guidance for pre-tax operating profit from $2 billion to $3 billion, while the higher end of its range still sits at $3.5 billion.
But the more bullish container volume and profit forecasts didn’t help assuage investors, with stock falling nearly 5 percent during the day.
The company saw total revenue fall 10 percent to $14.2 billion, with a 31 percent slump in year-over-year freight rates in the quarter plunging ocean revenues 18 percent to $9.2 billion. And despite the raised outlook, underlying profit sank nearly 70 percent year over year to $939 million, down from $3.1 billion in the 2024 quarter on the significantly lower ocean revenue alongside increased container-handling and network costs.
Beyond the financial aspects of the earnings report, Maersk maintained that the disruption in the Red Sea, which has caused ocean carriers to route ships around Africa since late 2023, is expected to last for the full year.
However, Clerc’s comments in the earnings call suggested a more positive outlook in the wake of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in September, calling it “a significant step towards being able to reopen the Suez Canal.”
“If the ceasefire holds, then I think we’ve crossed a gate and made a big step towards returning through the Red Sea,” Clerc said.
Clerc again emphasized that it needs to be clear that the ceasefire is “entrenched and doesn’t risk going backward” before a return is made, noting that the company is still examining whether the Houthis will cease attacks on vessels traversing the Red Sea.
Alongside the Maersk earnings report, Drewry released its weekly World Container Index (WCI) Thursday morning, revealing that global ocean spot freight rates increased for the fourth straight week.
Prices for a 40-foot container across all trade lanes rose 8 percent to $1,959 on the week.
Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 9 percent to $2,647 per 40-foot container, while those to New York jumped 8 percent to $3,837, largely due to general rate increases (GRIs) implemented by ocean carriers on Nov. 1.
“Carriers continue to implement GRIs to counter the downward pressure on spot rates from increased capacity,” said Drewry in the update. “However, this upward momentum is expected to be short-lived, with rates likely to soften unless further GRIs are introduced.”
