①Cautious sentiment in the market has led to downward pressure; what macro risks continue to escalate? ②The technology sector is undergoing a ‘new versus old transition’; what impact will this have on future market trends?
Cailian Press, February 20th, by editor Feng Yi. The first trading day of the Year of the Horse for Hong Kong stocks saw significant downward pressure. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.91%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 1.22%.
In terms of market performance, major tech companies collectively experienced sharp declines today. Baidu fell over 6%, Alibaba dropped approximately 5%, while Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Tencent all declined more than 2%.
In other sectors, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and film stocks were among the worst performers. Lithium battery, automotive, and non-ferrous metal industries also weakened significantly.
The rising sectors were mainly concentrated in two emerging technology tracks: AI and robotics, while oil and gas and shipping sectors showed short-term activity.
Overall, Hong Kong stocks were affected by overseas market preferences and macro geopolitical factors in the short term. With the suspension of Stock Connect trading, the Hang Seng Index recorded a total turnover of HKD 165.373 billion today, with capital flow still focused on structural hotspots.
In terms of short selling, the total amount today was approximately HKD 23.874 billion, equivalent to 14.44% of the Hang Seng Index’s turnover, higher than the average level in the week before the holiday.
The top three companies in terms of short-selling amounts were Alibaba-W (HKD 2.196 billion), Xiaomi Group-W (HKD 1.59 billion), and Tencent (HKD 1.081 billion).
In terms of market dynamics, profit-making opportunities continued to focus on the AI mainline direction, while other popular sectors showed clear divergence between gains and losses.
According to media reports, the robotics, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor sectors had already been key areas tracked by institutions before the holiday. Meanwhile, the non-ferrous metals sector also received significant attention.
It is worth noting that while market enthusiasm for AI remains high, capital has clearly shifted from software and traditional internet platforms to ‘essential infrastructure’ such as large models, computing power, and storage. The pursuit of growth prospects and certainty has intensified. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index, dominated by technology stocks, has hit a six-month low.
Today, the ‘large model duo’ Zhipu surged nearly 43%, and MiniMax rose over 14%. The market capitalization of both companies surpassed HKD 300 billion, exceeding Kuaishou and approaching JD.com and Baidu.
On the other hand, during the Spring Festival period, overseas markets like U.S. stocks were mainly range-bound. Apart from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, more than 90% probability remains for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in March. Additionally, with key earnings reports from major tech giants like NVIDIA about to be released, most investors are exercising caution.
Overall, although the short-term focus on AI-related themes in Hong Kong stocks is clear, the trading style of capital also exhibits certain defensive characteristics. A subsequent decline in macro sentiment could trigger market volatility.
