One year after the federal election, the latest Abacus Data numbers suggest the political environment remains remarkably favourable for Mark Carney and the Liberals.
The headline finding is straightforward: government approval has reached a new high. Today, 57% of Canadians approve of the job the federal government led by Carney is doing, while 28% disapprove. That is a net approval score of +29, and it comes after a year that has included floor crossings, a budget vote, the move to majority government, conflict abroad, trade pressure from Washington, and the normal accumulation of decisions that often erode public goodwill.
At the same time, the Liberals continue to lead in vote intention. If an election were held today, 46% of decided voters would vote Liberal, compared with 36% for the Conservatives. The NDP sits at 8%, the Bloc at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.
Carney’s personal numbers remain strong as well. His net impression is +26, with 54% holding a positive view of him and 28% holding a negative one. Pierre Poilievre, by contrast, has a net impression of -10.
What makes this wave especially interesting is the new question we asked about whether Canadians see the Carney government as a break from the Trudeau years or a continuation of them. A majority, 55%, say it represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years and has a different approach to managing the economy. Forty-five percent say it is essentially a continuation.
Despite efforts by Pierre Poilievre to tie Mark Carney’s government to Justin Trudeau, it doesn’t appear to be working. Carney appears to have created enough separation to allow many Canadians to judge this government on its own terms.
The structural numbers reinforce the story. The Liberal accessible voter pool is 60%, compared with 49% for the Conservatives and 32% for the NDP. The Liberals also lead among voters who prioritize cost of living, the economy, healthcare, housing, and managing Donald Trump. The Conservatives continue to lead among those focused on immigration and crime, but those issue clusters are smaller.
So the question now is not whether Carney has political capital. He clearly does.
The question is what he does with it.
Political capital is rarely static. It can be spent, wasted, replenished, or drained by events. What Carney has right now is not simply popularity. It is permission. Permission to make choices, to ask for patience, to explain trade-offs, and to be judged by results rather than by every detail of the plan along the way.
Tomorrow, I’ll be publishing my second long read on this. Paid subscribers will have access to the full piece.
You can read the full poll results: https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-carney-government-approval-hits-new-high-as-liberals-lead-conservatives-by-10/
