In an interview this week with The New York Times, Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada has prepared for the remote possibility of a US military invasion, describing it as an “extreme tail risk.”
He framed the exercise as contingency planning, not an outcome his government expects.
“That’s just risk management,” Carney told The Times. “That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.
The comments followed President Donald Trump’s repeated references to Canada as the “51st state” and his sharing of maps depicting Canadian territory as part of the US.
Carney declined to provide specifics about Canada’s defense preparations when pressed by the newspaper.
That leaves an important distinction: His acknowledgment that Canada considered the scenario does not establish what military measures, if any, resulted from that planning.
The discussion comes amid tensions over trade negotiations between the two countries. Yet Carney said he speaks regularly with Trump and described their direct communication as useful.
“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” Carney told The Times. “He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”
His account pairs continued contact with the president with preparation for a possibility he considers remote.
Carney’s stated rationale was that responsible planning includes examining scenarios outside the government’s expected course of events.
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