Key Points
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is expected to report third-quarter auto deliveries and production statistics on Oct. 2. Wall Street expectations vary widely.
Consensus estimates currently call for roughly 461,000 deliveries. Barclays is more optimistic, expecting quarterly deliveries to reach 475,000. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs recently cut its estimate to 435,000 after its regional sales data began tracking below expectations.
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While most investors will be tracking top-line numbers, I’ll actually be monitoring a lesser-known figure that could reveal the status of two ongoing catalysts.
These two catalysts could generate some excitement
While Tesla’s auto sales seem to be rebounding somewhat in 2026, the company experienced year-over-year declines in auto deliveries in both 2024 and 2025. Investors are hoping to see these figures stabilize as two other growth catalysts begin to take root.
Image source: Getty Images.
The first is production figures for the company’s new autonomous Cybercab model, which has no pedals or steering wheel. The second is the company’s Semi truck, which recently received a large order.
Both the Cybercab and Semi have been teased for years. But thus far, overall production has been minimal. With Tesla’s Cybercab starting production earlier this year and its Semi model experiencing a surge of buyer interest, I will be paying close attention to comments and numbers relating to these long-term growth catalysts.
Notably, Tesla hasn’t historically broken out these models in detail, instead lumping them together into a category called “Other Models.” Many investors will not be paying attention to the trajectory of this relatively small bucket. But I’ll be paying close attention to understand Tesla’s future sales ramps. Perhaps Tesla will even create a new Cybercab or Semi category to signal the importance of these new models.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Barclays Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
