The government has called on coffee and cocoa farmers across the country to remain calm following a sharp decline in farm-gate prices, attributing the current downturn to shifting global market dynamics and severe domestic weather conditions.
In a statement issued on September 20, Minister of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Frank Tumwebaze sought to reassure key stakeholders, emphasizing that the price drops do not signify a collapse in international demand.
“The current price fluctuation should not be interpreted as a disappearance of demand for coffee or cocoa. It is largely a response to changing expectations in global supply and inventories,” Mr. Tumwebaze said, expressing sympathy to farmers and traders impacted by the sudden adjustments.
According to ministry price tracking, average farm-gate prices for Robusta FAQ—a key benchmark for commercial quality coffee—dropped by roughly 14.5 percent from Shs13,500–Shs14,000 per kilogram in September 2025 down to Shs11,500–Shs12,000 per kilogram during the first half of September 2026. Robusta Kiboko also saw a decline, falling to Shs5,000–6,000 per kilogram compared to Shs6,000–Shs7,000 per kilogram over the same period last year.
In contrast, Arabica coffee prices experienced gains due to different market drivers. Arabica parchment rose about 8.5 percent, increasing from an average of Shs14,500 per kilogram in 2025 to between Shs15,500 and Shs16,000 per kilogram in September 2026.
Mr. Tumwebaze attributed the broader downward pressure on Robusta to increased bumper harvests from global powerhouses like Brazil and Vietnam entering the international market, driving down global benchmarks. Similarly, international cocoa prices recently suffered notable drops—falling up to 7.1 percent in a single day—driven by a 30 percent surge in Ivory Coast’s production and higher global inventories.
Beyond international market shifts, the Ministry of Agriculture highlighted severe domestic climate challenges as a primary driver affecting local output. Prolonged drought and abnormally high temperatures in major coffee-growing regions—including Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule, and Luwero—have severely impacted flowering, cherry filling, and overall bean quality.
The ministry estimates that adverse weather has reduced crop out-turn by roughly 10 percent in affected areas. The drought’s strain manifested in national trade data: Uganda exported 846,376 60-kilogram bags of coffee in July 2026, down 15 percent from the 997,105 bags exported in July 2025. Corresponding export revenues fell 18.6 percent from $250.7 million to $204.1 million.
Despite the dip, the government reassured growers that coffee farming remains profitable.
“Our farmers are not close to making losses,” Mr. Tumwebaze emphasized, noting that business models show structured farmers undertaking basic value addition can still break even at FAQ prices as low as Shs7,000 per kilogram. “A decline in price is not the same thing as making a loss. Profitability depends on the farmer’s production costs, productivity per acre, quality, and post-harvest handling.”
To mitigate the climate impact, the government announced several ongoing measures, including subsidizing fertilizer distribution under a Presidential Directive to restore soil fertility, scaling up farmer-managed irrigation schemes through an inter-ministerial partnership with the Ministry of Water and Environment, and distributing drought-resilient planting materials under the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project.
The minister urged farmers not to panic or compromise quality by harvesting green cherries, cautioning that selective traders are offering significantly lower prices for poorly processed or immature beans. He expressed optimism that rainfall recovery and ongoing agricultural interventions will lead to price stabilization over the next six months.
