Premier League predictions: Arsenal vs Chelsea, Everton vs Manchester United and the rest of GW3

The sound of the transfer window closing always brings a certain relief. Not just on behalf of my colleague David Ornstein, who hasn’t slept since early June, but because it brings the focus firmly back to what happens on the pitch.

In some ways, it feels like the Premier League season starts here. That is certainly the case for players such as Enzo Fernandez and Bradley Barcola, who made moves just before the transfer deadline, but it applies to several teams too.

Those first few weeks, with the window open, are so unsettling. So many teams began the season in a state of turmoil, with key players uncertain over their future and positions unfilled. Some remain in a state of flux after missing out on important targets — Everton perhaps the starkest example with Folarin Balogun — but at least they know how the land lies between now and January 1.

In theory, that should make it a little easier when it comes to predicting results. Players and teams should begin to settle into some kind of rhythm without transfer-based uncertainty hanging over them.

But in our prediction game, The Athletic readers have wasted no time picking up where they left off last season. Last week’s guest subscriber, Manchester United fan Matt from London, predicted six correct results out of 10 to send the readers to the top of the table. That included getting all five of Sunday’s results right.

There were five correct predictions from Wilfred, the seven-year-old boy who, again, has picked up where he left off, not least with an impressively persistent refusal to back his own team, Crystal Palace. The algorithm, Algo to its friends, put a calamitous opening day behind it to the season with a solid four out of 10.

As for The Athletic’s experts — and at this point I feel duty-bound to prefix that with “so-called” experts because I know it’s what you’re thinking — my colleague Andy Jones struggled to build on the platform built by Elias Burke in week one, bringing up the rear with three correct results out of 10.

To be fair to Andy, he was scuppered by a series of late goals: late winners for Hull City and Sunderland, late equalisers for Everton and Leeds United. I know the feeling, Andy. It happened to me all the time last season.

Our predictions game is slightly different this time around, though. Each week, one of our “so-called experts”, on rotation, will preview and predict the 10 Premier League games. By popular request, we will provide a predicted scoreline too.

Our straight result predictions (home win, away win, draw) will go up against those of Wilfred, the algorithm and a weekly guest subscriber — and yours, if you make sure you visit our Pick ’Ems hub so you can pitch your predictions against ours.

It still rankles that the subscribers ended up top of the table last year and, unnervingly, this season has so far followed the same pattern.

This week sees the baton passed to Jay, a 40-year-old Arsenal supporter from Bristol. Good luck, Jay.

Subscriber’s match of the week

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Oliver says: I’ve been struggling to shake off a strange feeling that Chelsea will get something from this game. I know I should ignore it, reminding myself of everything I have said and written on The Athletic about the farcical way in which Chelsea have been run in recent years, and about how the tables have turned since they used to bully a callow Arsenal team in the late 2000s and early 2010s, but they have made more sensible moves this summer. And I keep getting a vision of Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and Joao Pedro combining on the counter-attack on Sunday.

But they haven’t beaten Arsenal since September 2021. That’s 11 games in all competitions. I owe it to my colleagues to shake off that strange feeling and play it safe.

HOME WIN

Score: 2-1

Jay says: “Chelsea have started the season well under Xabi Alonso, and seem to be clicking going forward, but with question marks over their defence. Arsenal looked good in their wins over Manchester City (Community Shield) and Coventry, and did what they needed against Villa. We all know how strong Arsenal’s defence is and I’m confident they can keep Chelsea out. Arsenal are the team to beat this season.”

HOME WIN

Our Expert’s other predictions

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool

Oliver says: I really enjoyed Ipswich’s first-half performance at Manchester United last Sunday, even if they ended up losing 5-2, and they could certainly add to Liverpool’s teething problems under Andoni Iraola. Barcola should bring more spark and incisiveness to Liverpool’s attack, but some of last season’s shortcomings, notably on the right-hand side of the team and in midfield, haven’t been addressed. Unlikely as it sounds, I could see Liverpool drawing 2-2 for the third consecutive game.

DRAW

Score: 2-2

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Oliver says: Eddie Howe did an excellent job at Newcastle, but not in this fixture. Under Howe, they played eight Premier League matches against his former club Bournemouth and didn’t win any. Indeed, it was a 2-1 Bournemouth win at St James’ Park last April that really heightened the feeling that things were coming to an end for Howe at Newcastle. It has been a highly encouraging start on Tyneside for Howe’s successor Matthias Jaissle, but Bournemouth might test them in ways that Liverpool and Tottenham, both of them half-cooked, did not. Another 2-2? Why not?

DRAW

Score: 2-2

Brentford vs Sunderland

Oliver says: Being beaten to European qualification by Sunderland on the final day of last season might prove a blessing in disguise for Brentford. For one thing, they have a lighter schedule this season. For another, they don’t have to worry about UEFA’s financial regulations, which are more stringent than the Premier League’s (although being such a well-run club, they would have little trouble complying in any case). Brentford’s ninth-placed finish last season was their highest since the 1930s. They could improve on it this time.

HOME WIN

Score: 1-0

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

Oliver says: This is not a fashionable opinion, but I quite fancy Liam Delap to prove a few people wrong at Nottingham Forest. Yes, the £50million transfer fee reflects a market that has gone mad, after his lost year at Chelsea, but he has many of the raw materials to develop into a very good centre forward and, in the right environment (which clearly wasn’t Stamford Bridge), he could thrive. It might take a while to settle into a rhythm, but the same can evidently be said of Saturday’s opponents after a summer of upheaval at Tottenham.

DRAW

Score: 1-1

Manchester City vs Coventry

Haaland, as always, is in the mood for goals (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Oliver says: After 25 years away, it has been a tough reintroduction to Premier League life for Coventry — beaten 3-0 at Arsenal and, more painfully, 1-0 at home to Hull City — and it doesn’t get any easier on Saturday. This is exactly the kind of game where, from a Fantasy Premier League perspective, I’m considering the Triple Captain chip for Erling Haaland. He’s in the mood for goals (when is he not?) and Coventry look vulnerable as they try to acclimatise to the top flight.

HOME WIN

Score: 4-0

Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Oliver says: I had a nagging concern for Fulham and Palace after a summer of change and, with both of them losing their first two games, it hasn’t gone away. They have both had one OK-ish performance as well as one concerning game but a third consecutive defeat would put Alvaro Arbeloa or Pierre Sage under genuine pressure. That’s partly why I’m predicting a draw. I’m not convinced either coach will go for broke if the scores are level late on.

DRAW

Score: 1-1

Brighton vs Leeds

Oliver says: It’s hard to know what to expect here. Brighton look so open, with thrills and spills at both ends. Leeds, their defence reinforced by the arrival of Tarik Muharemovic, look like a tough nut to crack. It just depends on who succeeds in turning this into a game played on their terms. I’ll say Brighton.

HOME WIN

Score: 2-1

Hull vs Aston Villa

Nobel Mendy celebrates scoring against Manchester United (George Wood/Getty Images)

Oliver says: Many of us have been amazed by Hull starting so well, winning their first two, but it has happened before. In 2008-09, their first-ever top-flight season, they took the Premier League by storm, winning six of their first nine games, and were third in the table in late October. They barely won again all season and ended up 17th, one point clear of the relegation zone, but survival — even after that flying start — was greeted as a resounding success, as it would be again.

AWAY WIN

Score: 1-2

Everton vs Manchester United

Oliver says: A lot of Manchester United supporters greeted the end of the summer transfer window with a sense of lost opportunity, but these things are relative. Look at Everton, who entered this summer (and indeed several summers before that) with a weakness at centre forward and who, remarkably, ended the transfer window even lighter in that department after selling Beto to Fiorentina and being spurned by Monaco’s Folarin Balogun on deadline day. And that’s after also selling Iliman Ndiaye to Manchester City. A tough few months lie ahead.

AWAY WIN

Score: 0-2

You’ve read about Oli Kay’s predictions for this week; now see what Elias Burke has picked as his Lock, Gamble and Too Close to Call matches.