Key Points
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) currently sits around a $5.25 trillion market cap — a fair bit over second-place Apple at a $4.5 trillion market cap. However, I think this gap will widen quickly, and it all starts this week after Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 26.
After that, I believe that Nvidia’s stock will produce a major rally, and lead to it being valued at greater than a $6 trillion valuation by the end of 2026.
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That makes it a no-brainer buy before earnings, as that indicates about a 14% upside — about double what Nvidia’s stock has returned so far this year. Nvidia looks like a smart buy now, and is destined to set new records after Q2 results are available.
Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia is no stranger to exceeding expectations
With Nvidia, exceeding expectations has become the norm. For Q4 FY 2026, Nvidia expected $65 billion in revenue; it ended up producing $68 billion. For Q1 FY 2027, management guided for $78 billion, yet Nvidia generated $82 billion. This level of outperformance has become the expectation, and with Nvidia projecting $91 billion in revenue for Q2, most investors are likely expecting something in the $93 billion to $94 billion range. Why is that a big deal? Because during Q2 of last year, Nvidia generated $46.7 billion in revenue, which would require revenue of $93.4 billion to double its revenue year over year.
For a company of Nvidia’s size to be doubling its revenue is nothing short of incredible, and could reignite a rally due to Nvidia’s accelerating growth rate.
NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
Furthermore, Nvidia doesn’t have that high of expectations coming into earnings. In 2024 and 2025, Nvidia was trading at about 35 times forward earnings entering Q2 earnings. This year? It’s a mere 24 times forward earnings.
NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
If Nvidia reports a blowout quarter and gives strong Q3 guidance, this could ignite a rally in the stock and push Nvidia to levels that it normally trades at during this time of year: about 35 times forward earnings. If Nvidia can do that, it would push it to heights never before seen by a company.
The road to a $6 trillion valuation is clear
The first step is for Nvidia to report a strong quarter, which I think is a given at this point. There haven’t been any major industry shifts to indicate that Nvidia is in trouble, and I think solid results are a foregone conclusion.
The next step will be for Nvidia’s stock to rise to 35 times forward earnings. Should Nvidia’s stock do that, it would rise 46% from today’s levels. Where does that put its market cap? Well above the $6 trillion threshold.
A 46% gain from today’s $5.25 trillion market cap actually yields a $7.65 trillion company — well beyond the levels I’m looking for. Nvidia only needs 14% to get to $6 trillion, so I think it’s a pretty solid bet that Nvidia will reach $6 trillion shortly after earnings. That makes it a strong stock pick today, and even if it doesn’t rise to its standard valuation, I think 2027 will be a great year for the stock because it will enter the year trading at a pretty low valuation for its growth.
The AI buildout isn’t slowing anytime soon. With Nvidia at the center of the computing power that those data centers use, it makes for a strong buy right now.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
