I have found great entertainment in reading and listening to the fallible predictions made by journalists, writers and podcasters in the build-up to a new Premier League season. Predictions are, of course, a fool’s game, but the content is enjoyable to delve into given the varying opinions and, at times, sweeping assumptions made by some apparent ‘experts’.
It is clear by now, I am sure, which direction this article is going to take. However, reading some of the predictions surrounding Sunderland’s second season back in the Premier League has been bewildering, if not entirely surprising.
As many of you reading this will know, the general consensus is that Sunderland are going to struggle. Some suggest, somewhat fairly, that the demands of European football could prove too much for the squad to handle. Others have pointed towards a lack of transfer recruitment and the size of the squad, while some have fallen back on the well-worn – yet factually questionable – theory of ‘second-season syndrome’ as a reason for pessimism surrounding our campaign.
The aim of this piece is not to lambast or shame those making these predictions. Of course, nobody knows what will happen over the course of a season. Instead, I want to provide some context as to why I believe some of these assessments are perhaps too generic and, in certain cases, appear to be based on assumptions rather than a detailed understanding of Sunderland’s current situation.
Some of the predictions, including those made by the BBC, have suggested that a 17th-place finish could be on the cards because of Sunderland’s lack of transfer activity. This appears to be a recurring theme throughout Phil McNulty’s assessment, with his focus on recruitment seemingly underpinning much of his argument for Sunderland to struggle. Yet, in the same set of predictions, our neighbours up the road are tipped to finish 12th despite losing their manager and several key leaders, while Fulham’s recruitment is viewed through a much more positive lens.
If anything, I would argue that Sunderland’s decision to prioritise quality over quantity this summer should be viewed as a strength rather than a weakness.
Thanks to the extraordinary work carried out by Florent Ghisolfi and his team last summer, the club enters this season in a strong position. The squad is settled, there is already considerable young talent at the club and, unlike twelve months ago, Sunderland are not attempting to rebuild an entire team. They need only a handful of additions to strengthen what is already there.
And, in case anyone has forgotten, there are still two weeks remaining in the transfer window. It has been a relatively slow summer for a number of clubs, with the World Cup having an obvious impact on recruitment. I would be surprised if Sunderland did not make further additions before the window closes, and I expect the quality of those arrivals could leave many people viewing this Sunderland side in a very different light.
Furthermore, this summer has demonstrated just how much young, exciting talent exists within the Sunderland squad, complemented by a valuable sprinkling of experience. In many ways, Sunderland were one of the club stories of the World Cup, with their players collectively making a significant contribution on the biggest stage in international football.
One has to assume that the experience gained by the likes of Habib Diarra, Brian Brobbey, Noah Sadiki and Wilson Isidor from appearing at the World Cup will provide them with an enormous boost in confidence heading into their second season in the Premier League.
And that, perhaps, is the point that some of these predictions are missing. Sunderland are not the same club – or the same team – that entered the Premier League twelve months ago.
Following on from many of their first year in the Premier League, we now have a squad that has domestic, World Cup and, soon, European football experience. It is fair to assume that many of these players are still only growing, with their ceiling only going to become higher and higher.
All this is also sprinkled with the fortunately talented and experienced footballers we have in Granit Xhaka and Thomas Meunier. As we all know, Xhaka was picked out as Xabi Alonso’s first signing as the experienced leader that he wanted to spearhead his revolution.
The retention of Xhaka, along with the acquisition of Meunier, emphasises and displays the faith that hugely talented players have in the project we are creating.
There are certainly things that Régis Le Bris and his team do have to work on this season. Issues from last season, such as goals from set pieces, the drab away performance that came out every few weeks, along with issues on the wing, are all things that Sunderland need to improve on this season.
With Brian Brobbey likely to be the main man up top, it is imperative that our big Dutchman is provided with service from the wings that far exceeds the one he got last season at times. Despite all his success, Brobbey occasionally cut an isolated figure, and defenders will surely learn to deal with his physical presence somewhat better this season than last.
Finally, the theory of ‘second-season syndrome’ is one that tends to crop up when speaking about different clubs who have survived their first season in the top flight. Whilst it isn’t completely false, it is certainly emphasised far more as an issue than history shows.
It is a phrase that gets thrown around so regularly that it can almost be accepted as fact, but the history of the Premier League suggests otherwise. Of the 52 promoted clubs before Sunderland and Leeds to survive their first Premier League season, only 11 were relegated in their second – meaning almost 79% survived for at least another year.
Furthermore, Opta’s historical data actually suggests that surviving that first season can often be the beginning of a club establishing itself rather than the start of an inevitable decline. Since 2012/13, promoted clubs that survived their first season have averaged 12th as their final position and 45.7 points as their total in their second season. There are certainly examples of clubs suffering a dramatic second-season collapse – Ipswich’s fall from fifth to 18th is the obvious warning for Sunderland given their own European commitments – but history suggests these are exceptions rather than the rule.
All in all, this season is one where Sunderland fans should be optimistic, not worried, and excited, not petrified. This season has the potential to be a season where the club becomes a household name in the top flight rather than a yo-yo club.
Whilst there are certainly things that we need to work on, I am certain the fans of this club are aware that the doom is not nigh on Wearside.
